Comment by IshKebab
3 hours ago
> It's going to happen very soon
Why? You can't just assert it. There are very good reasons to think it won't happen soon, and you've given no reasons to think it will happen soon.
3 hours ago
> It's going to happen very soon
Why? You can't just assert it. There are very good reasons to think it won't happen soon, and you've given no reasons to think it will happen soon.
Because everything is converging on a backlog of huge efficiency gains established in research, waiting to be combined. Looped transformers, a whole host of diffusion techniques and new quantization techniques, maturation of ternary distillation and new ways to separate logic from stuff that can be looked up. It would surprise me if most frontier models were actually even that big at that point in terms of active params. I highly doubt it.
You asserted that it was never going to happen first
But he gave a reason for that. "Before that happens the frontier will move". Why do you think it will happen anyway? Do you think the frontier will not move fast enough that local models are unable to catch up, or do you think people will prefer local models at a point. Or something else?