Comment by maxnevermind
3 hours ago
> From the perspective of “an average person”, ChatGPT is delivering fantastic products.
It is a honeymoon still, enshittification is coming, who knows how that will look like given how much more expensive to run LLMs backed user experience. Some back of the envelope calculations: 300 million US users * 20$ a month * 12 months = 72 billion $ a year. 72B$ is some spare change for AI labs. That assuming entire US will be subs which is unlikely and outside of the US there are not many rich countries consuming it, India is the next market, then Brazil and Philippines I think, not super rich counties to say the least. I believe total revenue to just pay for the capex build out by the end 2027 should be on the scale of hundreds of billions a year.
Analysis totally excludes enterprise customer demand and or paid API usage which will only increase as apps integrate this into future knowledge work workflows.
Indeed, that is where the money is. Though enterprise is more focused on efficiently than retail and I'm not sure if they won't drift away from frontier models.
Depends on whether the frontier models can keep on offering better performance. The real efficiency is getting work done faster and better.
Compared to a $100k salary, a few hundred dollars a month is insignificant. If you can make the employee even just a few percent more efficient, it’s worth it.
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