Comment by ceejayoz
3 days ago
> Kalshi is already calling it a double win for Democrats.
It's quite common for Kalshi bets to go from <1% to 100% chance in minutes when news breaks. "Prediction markets" is almost Orwellian in its inaccuracy.
3 days ago
> Kalshi is already calling it a double win for Democrats.
It's quite common for Kalshi bets to go from <1% to 100% chance in minutes when news breaks. "Prediction markets" is almost Orwellian in its inaccuracy.
If that's the case you should really buy that <1%. You have a 50% chance of 100xing your money.
That would require these to be predictable.
Which is the precise problem with the "prediction" markets writ large. Some things just... aren't.
In what way is the outcome of a coin flip predictable?
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