Comment by vlovich123
2 days ago
I don’t think the housing affordability crisis ends and I don’t think that’s the right way to model it. SF has one of, if not the highest, $/sq ft in the US. And prop 13 is suppressing it - estimates indicate that property taxes revenues would double meaning that 2.5k/person would become 5k.
And remember that that 2.5k/person is only for residential properties. commercial properties still fall under prop 13 and that’s about 50-60 of the other tax. So a full repeal would make it closer to 10k/person instead of the current 5k.
I agree the story on rents and home prices would be unclear because ultimately the people might move and just rent out their homes with property taxes baling into the new rental price.
What would they even do with $10k per person? That seems insanely high.
Also seems unlikely. It might depress housing prices and act as a natural counterbalance (but then rents and Col drops too). I think it’s really hard to model.
I don't think housing costs would drop that much, if at all. What matters is the monthly mortgage payment. Property prices drop when property taxes go up, but mortgage payments tends to stay similar.
In one sense that sounds like free money for the state. However, home equity constitutes the largest share of savings for people, and that's more true the lower down the income ladder you go. So you're taking money out of the working- and middle-class. In some circles home equity is considered a poor savings vehicle, but they don't seem to consider that it's the only secured loan most people can access for leveraged investment. It's the only investment available to most people that let's them leverage capital markets the way the very wealthy can.
And FWIW, residential rents also track monthly mortgage payments, so renters aren't likely to see any difference, either. On average renters pay roughly the same amount per month they'd pay as owners, just without building any equity. I suppose they might be slightly better off after accounting for transfer payments (i.e. public services, entitlements, etc), but they'd be even better off if they could become owners rather than renters.
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> What would they even do with $10k per person?
Flock. We need more Flock.
I’m sure they can find some things to hire McKinsey to do feasibility studies on the feasibility of doing a feasibility study.