Comment by schiffern
2 days ago
"May is right in the headline" and "strong claim" don't go together.
I prefer error bars be worn on the sleeve, so I find "may" on display to be refreshing, not dismaying. YMMV
What's your alternate explanation to explain the absence of fentanyl in Italy, and how can my country get so weirdly randomly lucky?
Errors are fine when they are due to a random process. When the press pick up claims because they are likely to attract readers it's a different story. Errors are not random, they are the result of an optimization process and are very unlikely to happen on the other side of the claim. (For example consider the overwhelming number of articles that have been published with the title "Scientist may have found life on mars" over the past 30 years)
For this reason, "may" in a press article, doesn't carry the same meaning regarding uncertainty than "may" in common language. Which is why I disagree with your comment:
> I've never understood the value of simply repeating the definition of uncertainty words like "may."
In the contrary, I think it is worth reminding people what may actually means here.
Now, I agree with what you and others have said about the usefulness of discussing uncertain claims, and I don't think there is a real disagreement here.