Comment by dnautics

> doesn't convincingly justify why, in my opinion.

I'm convinced this agency argument is correct [for the next N months]. But yeah, it's vibes. And you could probably create a reasonable proxy measure for this.

So I wouldn't call his argument unconvincing, I would call it unformalized. In order to walk this world you're gonna have to contend with some informal arguments that are powerful, correct, and should be convincing.