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Comment by ralfd

1 hour ago

There is (2 minutes before Flight 14, maybe it changes in 10 minutes) low chance, but not no chance.

> This would be an ambitious but achievable cadence for Starship, particularly if the tanker Starships didn’t have to be reusable, and could be made without a heat shield or control surfaces. Just how much time SpaceX has to reach this cadence is an interesting question, since right now NASA and SpaceX are locked in a game of chicken around who can commit to the least realistic timeline. But it probably has to get in gear by early 2027.

This is good evaluation. A launch every week in 2027 is ambitious, but not impossible.

"A launch every week in 2027 is ambitious, but not impossible."

I don't think a week is enough to gather data and fix subsequent launch

  • Depends on what the issue is, but you don't need to apply fixes to the next launch. You test them when you can, which may tax a few launches.