Comment by richardw
8 hours ago
100% LLM’s are very unlikely to get there. They’re fundamentally not suited to thinking like we do. They work on the abstraction of what we’ve written down, which is a good trick but barely hold it together when things get hard/novel.
However, all the confident “it’s fine” votes assume we never invent a better architecture than LLM’s. Given the level of investment and race between countries, it’s not a reliable bet. It’s much, much harder to guarantee safety than it is to find ways it could go wrong.
> They’re fundamentally not suited to thinking like we do
LLMs with CoT are Turing-complete. So, theoretically, they can implement any kind of finitely describable algorithm (barring super-Turing computations).
Brainfuck is Turing complete too. But it's not about the ability to implement something, it's about the ability to practically model it. LLMs are magic because the modeling is excessively easy in relation to their capability to infer later.
"They are fundamentally not suited to thinking like we do" stays wrong nevertheless. They are fundamentally suited to everything not proven to be outside their modelling ability.
5 replies →
I agree with this. It's concerning where we might be after several more large breakthroughs. None of the technology we have right now seems likely to get to that level
Erm investing in risky projects requires expected returns that get delivered.
We will soon find out if the party ends or continues to go on.
Hype might get you capital gains. But cash flows matter.
This is a forever problem now.
If/when/how the market crashes mostly doesn't matter, unless we somehow get reset to the stone age. Look up what the capital cycle is. When openAI goes down, someone with real money and assets will buy up the remains. They'll make contracts with the US military and .gov as the government is already hooked. They'll be able to survive the recovery and then instead of us dying in 5 years we die in 10.
When the .com crash happened .com's didn't go away. Bad business models did.
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