Comment by ggreer

Is there any specific cognitive task that you'd best against AIs not being able to accomplish in the next 4 years? ChatGPT launched only 4 years ago. Considering the advancements since then, I'm having a hard time coming up with anything. Only two years ago, AIs couldn't tell you how many Rs were in "strawberry". Now they're creating 0-days to get at training data and solving math problems that have stumped humans for decades.

Scaling has produced novel capabilities with each larger model, and the rate of new capabilities doesn't seem to be slowing down yet. Even if you think the rate of improvements will slow down, that still means there will be significant improvements beyond what current models can do. Moore's law has slowed down, but modern computers are still much faster than ones from a decade ago. And unless you work at Anthropic or OpenAI, you don't know what the state-of-the-art is capable of. The most advanced publicly available models are months behind what AI labs have, and are deliberately limited to reduce liability.