Comment by ssivark
3 hours ago
This is a motte & bailey moment. Parent comment stated something much sharper, that I responded to:
> I do not understand how you can see what has happened in the last 3 years and say "it will not get us there" no matter what "there" is.
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Your statement is something much weaker, and I would still question what exactly "general" means when AI capabilities are commonly accepted to be so "jagged".
Maybe my phrasing is too weak but if the parent comment is the 'bailey', I fully agree with it.
The last 3 years of progress have been so explosive and, yes, general that it seems crazy to fully rule out dramatic future progress.
When people have a very narrow 'confidence interval' about their AI predictions, in either direction, it's difficult to trust them.