Comment by howunfortunate
4 hours ago
Maybe my phrasing is too weak but if the parent comment is the 'bailey', I fully agree with it.
The last 3 years of progress have been so explosive and, yes, general that it seems crazy to fully rule out dramatic future progress.
When people have a very narrow 'confidence interval' about their AI predictions, in either direction, it's difficult to trust them.
> it seems crazy to fully rule out dramatic future progress.
Nothing is gained by attacking strawmen. Of course there will be dramatic future progress. That does not entail that AGI will be achieved.