Comment by doctorpangloss
3 hours ago
the greatest threat to Mistral is that there isn't a deep and large enough capital market in the EU to absorb the valuation step ups needed by the handful of EU sovereign growth investors to justify their existence.
you could say, that's perpetually a tomorrow problem, so long as they never go public, but that should illuminate for you: if everyone "knows this," it's inevitable that this so-called EU company, that didn't invent any of the AI, the hardware nor the training data, where their product is essentially more like a VPN provider than a frontier technology company, just lists and capitalizes in the US anyway.
Seems some AI they did invent: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49243397
By your measure anyone unable to build EUV lithography machines without ASML help is doomed. EU could easily corner the market and shut them all off. No more NVIDIA.
Let’s grow the pie, shall we?!
there is truth to the scarcity of EUV solutions, although I am more radical, I don't think there's really scarcity of ANYTHING except real estate, physical or metaphorical. that said this little rinky dink patent... Mistral is not ASML. Never was, never will be. you are welcome to read into the dynamics of EU capital markets.
honestly the craziest thing to me is that VC people in the EU, they say, let's grow the pie, and when you look at their little decks with their little flags next to the portraits, it's french, german, italian, spanish, all piling into the same 40 or so companies, which will 110% list in the US in order to exit. Meanwhile, EU member Poland produces tons of entrepreneurs, despite no Polish flags in those growth fund decks, and its best people just leave to the US and raise money there and make fabulously successful stuff.
so yeah, "grow the pie" except for Poland. EU relitigating the same feuds it has been for centuries.