Comment by doctoboggan
9 hours ago
Yes, I am projecting out into the future, not talking about the current state. I said "might be the first".
9 hours ago
Yes, I am projecting out into the future, not talking about the current state. I said "might be the first".
That's an uphill battle. People will hand wave that the s curve has flattened, and think it will stay at current levels. They claimed this confidently year after year over the last few years.
Other people have claimed confidently year after year over the last few years that the latest model was AGI - or that the singularity would arrive in a few months anyway. All the battles are uphill when you’re at a local miminum, I guess.
AGI has no goalpost-shifting-resistant definition anyway. In my estimation, the current tech is AGI by how I understood the term when it was introduced (at a time when AI as a label got adopted for things like image classifiers and machine translators and people needed a label for something that can work across tasks with a pure natural language interface telling it what to do). (And no, sentience, consciousness, inner experience, some amorphous "real understanding" etc was not part of the definition) We are in the scifi future just got used to it. Or haven't realized it yet because human systems have inertia and we could some oracle philosophers stone that knows the answer to every question in a nanosecond and we'd still lag 10 years in how to fit it into existing work flows and getting wet ink signatures onto paper authorizing it's use in the bureaucracy.