Comment by killingtime74
13 hours ago
I was just checking which were the top guesses on polymarket before the announcement and this winner was not even a choice on there. At least we know there's no insider trading at the Nobel foundation.
13 hours ago
I was just checking which were the top guesses on polymarket before the announcement and this winner was not even a choice on there. At least we know there's no insider trading at the Nobel foundation.
> In accordance with Nobel's will, the prize is selected by the Norwegian Nobel Committee, a five-member committee appointed by the Parliament of Norway unlike all the other awards chosen by the Swedish Nobel Committee.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nobel_Peace_Prize
There's been accusations of leaks in connection to bets with the Nobel Price in Literature.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nobel_Prize_in_Literature_cont...
Machado’s odds suddenly surged to almost 80% 12 hours before the announcement
https://www.reddit.com/r/dataisbeautiful/comments/1o383a1/oc...
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/oct/10/nobel-peace-pr...
Wasn’t that because their CMS had URLs that were easy to guess?
https://www.reddit.com/r/slatestarcodex/comments/1o51k61/upd...
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The prize in economics is even more different, "in memory of alfred nobel"
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nobel_Memorial_Prize_in_Econom...
Yes, it doesn’t really have anything to do with the actual Nobels but the name.
I wonder...
If I had inside information, and didn't want to make it obvious, I'd just take the opposite side of any bet for candidates I knew wouldn't win.
Sorry, but your reasoning is incomplete. They could have bet millions on the negative result for each of the candidates that were listed. You aren't forced to bet on a winner, you can instead bet on everybody to lose.
I hope it gets banned by the next administration.
this seems a bit odd to me (change the link to 1 day)
https://polymarket.com/event/nobel-peace-prize-winner-2026-1...
Yulia Navalnaya (widow of Alexei Navalny) had a ton of play, and Navi Pillay didn't even have a market?
edit: and what dang just added about the US - ICC sanctions
Pretty stupid prize to bet on considering the committee keeps even the nominees secret for 50 years.
It would be funny to have such a prize finance itself by doing this. Openly. Game theory working over time on that one.
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Can you explain why this choice is offensive to you?
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19 replies →
One wonders how you would have felt about the 1973 prize if you had been alive at the time.