Comment by ralphington
13 hours ago
Sorry, but your reasoning is incomplete. They could have bet millions on the negative result for each of the candidates that were listed. You aren't forced to bet on a winner, you can instead bet on everybody to lose.
It would still be detectable though: Does sum(price of all Yes) have an early unexpected down draw?
this seems a bit odd to me (change the link to 1 day)
https://polymarket.com/event/nobel-peace-prize-winner-2026-1...
Yulia Navalnaya (widow of Alexei Navalny) had a ton of play, and Navi Pillay didn't even have a market?
edit: and what dang just added about the US - ICC sanctions
Pretty stupid prize to bet on considering the committee keeps even the nominees secret for 50 years.
I hope it gets banned by the next administration.
It would be funny to have such a prize finance itself by doing this. Openly. Game theory working over time on that one.