Why mention nuclear but not wind? Wind has nearly as low an LCOE as solar, and is still dropping too, and wind power is anti-correlated with solar power, meaning we get more wind at night and in the winter.
One of these things is not like the other. You can have solar next week at a reliable price and you'll be able to buy insurance for your solar array on the private market. Nuclear isn't going to happen no matter how many data center projects get hyped. No nuclear project will be complete before we're all talking about data centers like we talk about the Metaverse.
Why would that be unreasonable? Generating some power somewhere, sometime isn't hard. Generating the right amount at the right time in the right location is. (In other words logistics.)
So yeah the cost is in moving and storing the electricity by maintaining and expanding the infrastructure.
It's the new EEG 2027 Amendment which changes things fundamentally. Instead of receiving a flat payout per kwh, installing and connecting a new solar installation from 2027 will be under market condition contracts and depending on the contract has maybe to pay a fee when feeding in during negative price times. The incentive now changed from 'we need to get solar and pay for the electricity' to 'store your electricity and use it yourself'. All existing solar installations before 2027 will continue to receive the flat payout when feeding in the power for 20 years.
It's solar so you can literally just unplug it. Although at the scale of an individual house you can just unplug (or otherwise deactivate) pretty much anything. It's the industrial scale stuff that can't be adjusted on a dime.
Even if the number of gas turbines will increase (it's not increasing nearly as much as you'd think if you just look at the number being built, because old ones are also being decomissioned), the amount of gas being burnt on an annual level is going to be going down. These gas plants are for bridging gaps left open by wind and solar which cannot yet be covered by batteries.
If you believe in the transition to renewables, Germany fundamentally does still need gas turbines to make that happen, more than we currently have.
That's not inconsistent. A robust grid will have enough capacity of any sort to cover peak demand during a dankelflaute but enough zero-emissions generation and storage to cover generation at all other times.
And that's exactly what Germany is doing. Their natural gas plants only run ~15% of the time. Usage is going down faster than capacity is going up.
I'm sceptical that more gas turbines doesn't create a more vulnerable grid. The possibility of gas shortages this winter is on the horizon and if the UK were to cease exports for whatever reason it would be a disaster for the rest of Europe.
Ed Conway released a video on the UK's gas network and disaster planning[0].
As shown in their documentary, a shutdown of exports to Europe would only require 2 or 3 failure events (low production from wind/solar, high-usage of gas for power/heating, disruption or cessation of imports via gas-tankers, well-placed damage to the gas network, extreme weather in the north sea). To maintain pressure in the gas network, they would begin shedding the largest loads first, exports to mainland Europe is #1 on that list.
Let's also not forget Nordstream and the disaster that caused when it mysteriously blew up. Before those pipelines exploded, there were protests in Germany because people were struggling to heat their homes.
Nuclear isn't vulnerable to any of these issues, we're very lucky that construction and investment has continued these past decades. /s
Why mention nuclear but not wind? Wind has nearly as low an LCOE as solar, and is still dropping too, and wind power is anti-correlated with solar power, meaning we get more wind at night and in the winter.
Yeah wind too.
The north, where I live, has lots of windmills and more is being built
> Wind has nearly as low an LCOE as solar
Because production costs aren't what's setting the prices, supply and demand is.
Cheap solar and wind power doesn't help when it's not available.
How much less of a problem is this as batteries improve? Honest question, I never saw this quantified.
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One of these things is not like the other. You can have solar next week at a reliable price and you'll be able to buy insurance for your solar array on the private market. Nuclear isn't going to happen no matter how many data center projects get hyped. No nuclear project will be complete before we're all talking about data centers like we talk about the Metaverse.
Good luck with solar in Germany when you will be paying a fee for feeding in energy to the grid during solar peek time from 2027 onwards.
Why would that be unreasonable? Generating some power somewhere, sometime isn't hard. Generating the right amount at the right time in the right location is. (In other words logistics.)
So yeah the cost is in moving and storing the electricity by maintaining and expanding the infrastructure.
Do you have a source? Can you "waste" that energy instead of feeding it in?
It's the new EEG 2027 Amendment which changes things fundamentally. Instead of receiving a flat payout per kwh, installing and connecting a new solar installation from 2027 will be under market condition contracts and depending on the contract has maybe to pay a fee when feeding in during negative price times. The incentive now changed from 'we need to get solar and pay for the electricity' to 'store your electricity and use it yourself'. All existing solar installations before 2027 will continue to receive the flat payout when feeding in the power for 20 years.
It's solar so you can literally just unplug it. Although at the scale of an individual house you can just unplug (or otherwise deactivate) pretty much anything. It's the industrial scale stuff that can't be adjusted on a dime.
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Why not store it in small and large battery systems and use it later?
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Added 17GW solar in the last 12 months, reached 129GW: https://solarzubau.de/deutschland/
Cool, these are currently supplying 0.06% of their installed capacity:
https://app.electricitymaps.com/map/zone/DE/fifteen_minutes
Very useful.
Yes, because we failed to invest in storage systems for the last... 25 years or so...
If we would have, it would look much different now.
We are currently busy building new gas turbines. lol.
Even if the number of gas turbines will increase (it's not increasing nearly as much as you'd think if you just look at the number being built, because old ones are also being decomissioned), the amount of gas being burnt on an annual level is going to be going down. These gas plants are for bridging gaps left open by wind and solar which cannot yet be covered by batteries.
If you believe in the transition to renewables, Germany fundamentally does still need gas turbines to make that happen, more than we currently have.
That's not inconsistent. A robust grid will have enough capacity of any sort to cover peak demand during a dankelflaute but enough zero-emissions generation and storage to cover generation at all other times.
And that's exactly what Germany is doing. Their natural gas plants only run ~15% of the time. Usage is going down faster than capacity is going up.
https://unpopular-truth.com/2024/07/05/natures-influence-on-...
Because everyone copies it: the word is Dunkelflaute. U, not a.
TIL Dankelflaute, a time when it is too dark with too little wind for either solar or wind energy generation. Thank you for this amazing word.
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I'm sceptical that more gas turbines doesn't create a more vulnerable grid. The possibility of gas shortages this winter is on the horizon and if the UK were to cease exports for whatever reason it would be a disaster for the rest of Europe.
Ed Conway released a video on the UK's gas network and disaster planning[0].
As shown in their documentary, a shutdown of exports to Europe would only require 2 or 3 failure events (low production from wind/solar, high-usage of gas for power/heating, disruption or cessation of imports via gas-tankers, well-placed damage to the gas network, extreme weather in the north sea). To maintain pressure in the gas network, they would begin shedding the largest loads first, exports to mainland Europe is #1 on that list.
Let's also not forget Nordstream and the disaster that caused when it mysteriously blew up. Before those pipelines exploded, there were protests in Germany because people were struggling to heat their homes.
Nuclear isn't vulnerable to any of these issues, we're very lucky that construction and investment has continued these past decades. /s
[0]: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sKDnZz4wypI
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We have to build new gas turbines since wind and solar do not provide dispatchable power.
I hear there is a shortage of blades for the turbines.
Where did you hear that?
I could only find news on the opposite: https://www.oedigital.com/amp/news/540213-siemens-gamesa-ceo...
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