Damn, imagine you're the tribe's only successful hunter. You're the only person that's ever brought a deer back to the fire. You're even really good at it.
But the deer...sometimes they just don't exist. And you checked very carefully. No prints, no rubbings, no hair, no trail. Nothing whatsoever. You even left a bit of hair under a rock one time and the next time you checked it was gone. The only evidence of the existence of deer is the pelt you wear and the memory of last night's dinner. Something happens to the deer in the woods.
Some weeks, you bring back a deer a day. The tribe sings song in your honor. But every time this happens, there are those who grow quite suspicious when you all of a sudden "haven't seen a deer in weeks" because what do you mean you haven't seen a deer you said there were hundreds of them yesterday.
You can try to bring them with you to see, but most aren't interested. The few you bring happen to come when the deer are plenty. You can't convince them to come when the deer have gone because they just went yesterday and saw the foot-print highways and scarred trees; they know trees don't heal overnight.
Or, thankfully, for Jane Street: the (eventually) efficient market hypothesis
There's definitely alpha out there, but I wouldn't want to make it my job to look for it
Damn, imagine you're the tribe's only successful hunter. You're the only person that's ever brought a deer back to the fire. You're even really good at it.
But the deer...sometimes they just don't exist. And you checked very carefully. No prints, no rubbings, no hair, no trail. Nothing whatsoever. You even left a bit of hair under a rock one time and the next time you checked it was gone. The only evidence of the existence of deer is the pelt you wear and the memory of last night's dinner. Something happens to the deer in the woods.
Some weeks, you bring back a deer a day. The tribe sings song in your honor. But every time this happens, there are those who grow quite suspicious when you all of a sudden "haven't seen a deer in weeks" because what do you mean you haven't seen a deer you said there were hundreds of them yesterday.
You can try to bring them with you to see, but most aren't interested. The few you bring happen to come when the deer are plenty. You can't convince them to come when the deer have gone because they just went yesterday and saw the foot-print highways and scarred trees; they know trees don't heal overnight.