Comment by davnicwil
1 day ago
At a certain point the offhand hints at exponentials in the narratives are going to have to come into contact with reality.
There's been this continual allusion to ever-narrowing circles of influence and ever-accelerating capabilities behind the curtain, but in fact things do keep coming out from behind said curtain and while their capability is indeed advancing it doesn't really seem at all like it's accelerating, even, let alone vertical.
Also at what point do we raise the fact that despite the ever narrowing circles of access, nobody within those circles seems to be able to actually do anything with it that's ostensibly what it's sold to do? All they seem to be able to do frankly is build more models and harnesses and tools designed to consume more tokens from the models they build, but not actual directly useful new or innovative software that generates what could be very real revenue.
Eventually when you keep talking about exponentials but not that much seems to be demonstrably changing, the narrative is going to run out of steam.
What if the real issue is that all important software problems were truly solved decades ago, and we have been reheating the leftovers for years. Having a super intelligent AI reheat it for you doesn't make much difference.
you might be right, but without evidence of this we can't know.
Much less than seeing new software products being shipped, we havn't even seen attempts at them being shipped, or built for that matter, again excluding this sort of meta software around the AI itself like harnesses and tooling.
We could speculate that attempts have been made but not shipped, and the details of why not being revealed, but then we're just back to it being talk with no demonstrable stuff happening in the world that backs it up.