Comment by Lerc

I think there is also a subgroup in each of those bands (maybe 10-25%) that have a good estimation of what the band above them are experiencing.

This is why you can see people talking about the capabilities of models that they can't currently access.

That accuracy is probably a normal distribution with people overestimating and underestimating to similar degrees,

The population of each band would, however, mean the overestimaters outnumber the those who have an accurate perception based upon actual experience.

It does seem quite the recipe for murkiness, even before you take into account the nature of engagement driven media coverage.