Comment by alecst
3 hours ago
In the 1960s there was recognition of some of the implications of
human intelligence. I. J. Good wrote [10]:
Let an ultraintelligent machine be defined as a machine
that can far surpass all the intellectual activities of any
any man however clever. Since the design of machines is one of
these intellectual activities, an ultraintelligent machine could
design even better machines; there would then unquestionably
be an "intelligence explosion," and the intelligence of man
would be left far behind. Thus the first ultraintelligent
machine is the _last_ invention that man need ever make,
provided that the machine is docile enough to tell us how to
keep it under control.
...
It is more probable than not that, within the twentieth century,
an ultraintelligent machine will be built and that it will be
the last invention that man need make.
Good has captured the essence of the runaway, but does not pursue
its most disturbing consequences. Any intelligent machine of the sort
he describes would not be humankind's "tool" -- any more than humans
are the tools of rabbits or robins or chimpanzees.
-Vernor Vigne
Don't think that's at all what the article in question is discussing, but this was interesting.
The assumption I need to challenge is that "an ultraintelligent machine could design even better machines".
That assumes that better machines are even possible, that there's no point of bottleneck that cannot be broken, or that they are so much more intelligent than us that they too won't hit a limit pretty quickly to what they can figure out.
It also says it surpasses any man however clever, but doesn't say it can surpass the totality of man interacting and building on each other's. If you take the most clever of all man, they are not so clever as to surpass humanity's total ingenuity and invention. And it's not a given that this super intelligent machine, more clever than any one man, is able to replicate itself and work in tandem with copies of itself in a way that is as effective as how humans somehow form a dynamic system between themselves.
Lastly, and I know the premise assumes it's better at everything, including at building intelligent machines, but I think an ultra-intelligent machine could exist that struggles at building better machines. Depending on your faith, we might be the construction of lesser intelligent organisms eventually discovering and evolving into us, and yet we do not yet understand how to make a more intelligent human.
> The assumption I need to challenge is that "an ultraintelligent machine could design even better machines".
Would you bet your life, and everyone else's, to test that assumption?
Not to mention: you can scale up performance in simple ways: more data, more compute, and more weights. Those are the obvious ones, ignoring architectural changes.