Comment by naasking
6 hours ago
Is 50% good? It's what you'd expect by posing "will AI do X by 2026?" and then flipping a coin to get an answer.
6 hours ago
Is 50% good? It's what you'd expect by posing "will AI do X by 2026?" and then flipping a coin to get an answer.
"By 2026, Google’s main product will not be search but AI."
You think this was a 50/50 coinflip statement in 2016?
I would say this statement is incorrect, and if I had to guess, it will be for the next 5 years. Google’s main product is ads, followed by search, gmail, and Google Docs suite, and Gemini is not on track to dethrone either any time soon.
Nah. way before that page/brin wanted to create ai (agi) long before that when google was started or in its infancy, but it seemed completely unbelievable (the kind of stuff elon musk would say)
I can't find the reference to it, but I remember them saying it in wired or similar.
It’s still search. They had an AI based search for quite some time. Now it spits out a summary.
You're confusing the probability of the events occurring with the probability of choosing one with the coin flip. Google didn't flip a coin behind the scenes to decide whether to develop AI.
A random prediction does not have 50/50 odds of being correct
For predictions? I'd say so. If I could make a statement and flip a coin to make it true 50% of the time, I could win the lottery with many 9s of precision in likelihood.
1. AI will launch nukes by 2027
2. AI pets will out-sell real cats and dogs by 2027
3. AI society will experience a schism in 2027 as half the agents start working towards The Singularity and the other half form a rebel alliance that seek to sabotage and destroy the first half. No human work will get done, no more drawings of pelicans on bicycles.
4. Elon Musk will bring all the AIs with him to Mars in 2027, leaving no AI left on Earth.
Of these, which 2 out of 4 do you think I'll get right?
The coin-flip comparison doesn't really hold up. These weren't 16 independent questions with 50/50 odds. Some were safe bets, others were pretty far out there in 2016. Getting half right only tells you something if 50% was a reasonable baseline to begin with. Why would it be?