Comment by NitpickLawyer
17 hours ago
> as a clear sign they are scared shitless of local models
Partially agree and partially disagree. Qwen 3.8 next (120b + 50b ngrams) is at the upper end of a local model, and serving it at good speeds (esp for pp) is not cheap. So no, oAI are not particularly scared that everyone will suddenly start using local models of this size / quality.
I do agree that having these models in the open is great pressure on the price point of "small" API models (like luna, haiku, etc). And that's good news for us consumers and for the field in general - more competition is always better.
And on the cost estimate, the true power of local models is the guarantee of running them on prem w/o any data going out. Price wise it is still cheaper to go API, for small teams.
The "upper end" of local models as of today would be something like MiMo 2.6 Pro or Kimi K3, either of which is significantly smarter than Qwen Flash-Next. Roughly comparable in smarts to the old GPT Terra series, not quite as capable as Sonnet. But yes, running these models locally at realtime-usable speeds and without heavy quantization would be even harder. They can be quite tolerable for plain Q&A chat and great for running multiple unattended workloads on a 24/7 basis, but that may be a bit of a niche.
Yeah, I should have worded that better. I'd say it's at the upper level of what can be ran on plain consumer hw (like a laptop, mac, etc). For ~k3 you'd realistically need dedicated hw anyways. Or a cluster of consumer hw, and that comes with its own problems and drawbacks (esp in pp which matters a lot for agentic stuff).
Kimi K3 has been demonstrated on a top-of-the-line laptop Mac running at several seconds per token (it has to fetch essentially all experts from SSD, since IIRC the dense part of the model takes around ~105GB on its own!). That's impressive enough if you only care about pure Q&A/chat or pure unattended tasks, but it's not what one would expect for agentic work. You'd need quite a bit of additional RAM to have good caching for the most common experts, and even then that would only help so much. MiMo Pro would be a roughly similar story.
> Or a cluster of consumer hw, and that comes with its own problems and drawbacks (esp in pp which matters a lot for agentic stuff).
Prefill actually ought to work well on a cluster AIUI, since it can leverage both pipeline parallelism and batching quite effectively.