Comment by ttul
5 days ago
At least one betting market has the odds at around 25% [1] of a direct military conflict with a NATO country by year's end. It will be interesting to see how things change after November's midterm elections. For what it's worth, Metaculus forecasters show a spike of likelihood at the end of September, 2027, with about 20% of forecasters saying that's when a military clash will happen. I'm not sure what's driving that spike in the forecast.
[1] https://polymarket.com/event/nato-x-russia-military-clash-in... [2] https://www.metaculus.com/questions/41238/when-will-russia-a...
Man do I feel gross knowing that there's people betting on this.
There are people making billions.
And there are people losing the same amount. I don’t get why people would use these markets as rigged as they are, other than using them to steer outcomes. (Bet 1b that Poland will attack Russia and that gives an incentive for someone to take that bet and stop it happening. Or vice versa.)
But isn't it somewhat realistic ? Once the Democrats take power in the House, they will ramp up the supply of US military aid and possibly force Trump to impose a so-called "no-fly" zone in Ukraine. There are war-hawks on both sides to push for this and they did push for this several times before. That will mean NATO & USAF involvement to enforce air superiority and bombing of Russian missile/drone sites and hence direct military clashes with Russia. It will likely snowball from there.