Comment by TrackerFF
5 days ago
Russia needs a huge mobilization.
Mobilization turned out to be extremely unpopular, so they can't just do that without some exceptional cause.
That cause would be NATO attacking Russia. So they're engaging heavily in hybrid warfare, doing stuff like that in Europe. They're tying to provoke some small retaliation from NATO countries.
If that happens, they'll declare that the barbarians are at the gate, and they need a huge mobilization of troops.
But they have no interest in actually fighting against NATO. It would end disastrously for Russia, any way you slice it. Kaliningrad would be completely cut off and surrounded, their Arctic and Baltic sea routes would be hostile.
As a bonus, a potential real war with Russia would increase far-right isolationist popularity in Europe.
Personally I think this is all a play to mobilize a ton of soldiers, send them to Ukraine, and expand their occupied areas before a peace deal comes to the table.
I follow most of what you're saying, but not so much the increase in the popularity of far-right ideology. Surely Russia explicitly positioning themselves as a common enemy of Europe (rather than the current cold war status) would galvanise Europe? Most of the far-right personalities across Europe are very soft on Russia, to say the least.
On the other hand imagine how popular would a real nationalist far right party be that would say "fight Russia"
As it happens, pretty much all far right nationalist parties are friendly with Russia. It would take a huge effort to change that discourse, or to build a new far right party from scratch - and now even without russian botnet support.
Yes it’s complicated. Nationalists aren’t necessarily right or far right. Until a few decades ago, the left were anti-migration and anti-globalisation due to the downward pressure on wages and working conditions. In this current political zeitgeist, the left have abandoned the working class and the right is happy to take their votes.
In a war with Russia, I imagine parties aligned with European strength would fare better. Parties which have previously suggested using kid gloves with Russia will fare worse. I think this implies that some right and left wing parties will not do well.
Lavrov had said it would be a short war if Europe attacks, suggesting they will use nuclear weapons immediately. Russia knows it cannot win a conventional war with Europe.
They don't need a war with Europe for conscription, just to declare war on Ukraine instead of a Special Military Operation. There is pressure on Putin to do this to finish the war quickly, but he is resisting.
Lavrov is a known liar: you can tell by the fact that he's moving his lips. That's kind of his job, really: lying.