Because we have a largely paper pushing service economy and so the guy who's plumbing a luxury condo is dependent upon the existence of some overpaid javascript monkey who the builder/financiers are counting on to buy the condo when it's done.
If you automate the paper pushing what happens? Jeff Bezos isn't gonna buy more condos.
It seems unlikely "physical AI" will be a complete bust but the post you're replying to is positing that fewer people will have money to spend on their services.
A lot of well-paid physical labor is going to face more competition from DiY + AI guidance among able-bodied and cost sensitive adults.
Even 1.5 years ago I replaced a blower motor in my vehicle with something like Sonnet 3.8 as the driver - saving myself $400 in labor and having a fun and educational experience to boot. Many home repair items fall into categories like this, where the actual physical skill demands are fairly low, but skills + background knowledge + supplies-on-hand were the value driver.
The BG knowledge is now available to anyone for free, and it comes with its own knowledgeable shopper.
Yeah, fewer "office jobs" and more automated jobs in general, means less demand for manual jobs from those (as money will be tighter).
But also, many existing office jobs type will try (or be forced) to get into manual jobs, and many young people will see AI-dominated fields as a dead end and also try to get into a manual job career, increasing supply, and further driving manual job wages down.
Because we have a largely paper pushing service economy and so the guy who's plumbing a luxury condo is dependent upon the existence of some overpaid javascript monkey who the builder/financiers are counting on to buy the condo when it's done.
If you automate the paper pushing what happens? Jeff Bezos isn't gonna buy more condos.
but one of his execs will buy and raze the whole block and build himself a luxury compound?
It seems unlikely "physical AI" will be a complete bust but the post you're replying to is positing that fewer people will have money to spend on their services.
A lot of well-paid physical labor is going to face more competition from DiY + AI guidance among able-bodied and cost sensitive adults.
Even 1.5 years ago I replaced a blower motor in my vehicle with something like Sonnet 3.8 as the driver - saving myself $400 in labor and having a fun and educational experience to boot. Many home repair items fall into categories like this, where the actual physical skill demands are fairly low, but skills + background knowledge + supplies-on-hand were the value driver.
The BG knowledge is now available to anyone for free, and it comes with its own knowledgeable shopper.
Thx - that’s a valid point
Yeah, fewer "office jobs" and more automated jobs in general, means less demand for manual jobs from those (as money will be tighter).
But also, many existing office jobs type will try (or be forced) to get into manual jobs, and many young people will see AI-dominated fields as a dead end and also try to get into a manual job career, increasing supply, and further driving manual job wages down.
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