Comment by raducu
5 days ago
Russia is the aggressor, absolutely.
However, let's talk realpolitik.
Ukraine innovates and Russia copies/addapts. Russia has ALWAYS been good at this game. Russia reminds me so much of the roman military in this sense, extremely good at copying and incorporating foreign military tactics/equipment.
Think of the initial long convoys ukraine destroyed, the bayraktars -- Russia addapted, the then the brilliant Eastern campaign where Ukraine managed to route the russians -- Russia adapted, that stopped working, then the indiscriminate massive artilery strikes Russia was doing -- ukraine started using better western artilery and himars, stopped the russians but the russians also addapted spread their logistics and so on; then the drones -- russia copied those even innovated with fiberoptic drones, then the Shaheds, ukraine adapted with fpv interceptors, then Russia started using jet powered interceptors, balistic missiles -- Ukraine initially stunned the world with Patriot interceptors but Russia kept firing until Ukraine ran out of interceptors, then the USV -- Ukraine had and still has great success with them, but look, Russia started using USVs also and Ukraine has no response to those.
It looks like the end will be decided by the country who just has more resources and willpower to continue.
I'm seriously scared for the next years -- the US is clearly turning hostile to Ukraine, Europe is turing far right with russian puppets everywhere.
> the US is clearly turning hostile to Ukraine
I think more precise language is important here. It is my perception that a small faction that currently controls the federal US government is hostile to Ukraine. A large majority of the general population of the US seems to support Ukraine.
You might argue that this distinction doesn't change the reality for Ukraine's prospects, but I disagree. The small anti-Ukraine faction in the US is becoming increasingly unpopular within the US. It is doubtful its dominance of the US executive branch will survive the next general election in two years. Its total control of the US government may not survive another month.
The willpower of Ukraine has been underestimated throughout this conflict. It seems a cinch it will hold strong for three more weeks. Then the US campaign for President begins in earnest and it would not be surprising for many US politicians to press against the anti-Ukraine faction in a bid for control of the US Presidency. The US Congress may try to remove itself from under the thumb of the current president and you might see sweeping changes in as little as three months. Or you might not.
Take courage. I think Ukraine's resolution to survive will outlast the influence of Putin fans who happen to have an outsized influence in US politics at the moment.
> large majority of the general population of the US seems to support Ukraine
“61% of Americans sympathize more with Ukraine, compared to only 3% who sympathize more with Russia; 22% who take neither side” [1]. (45% of MAGA supporters, 63% of GOP.)
[1] https://yougov.com/en-us/articles/54157-four-years-after-rus...
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>Today too, after western proclamation of Ukrainian victory for the last 3+ years, it is clear that Ukraine is facing defeat and cannot win
It was equally clear - also to me - that Ukraine is facing defeat in two or three days after the start of large scale invasion. And yet here we are, three years later.
They're doing great. Even if they surrendered today, they exceeded my initial expectations like 300 times already.
> They're doing great.
They've lost around 20% of their territory with no hope of getting it back because they don't have the required number (or armaments) to wage a proper counter offensive. They've lost around 1/4th of their armed force personnels and are now earning the ire of their citizens who are being forcefully conscripted to fight a war they don't want to fight. Huge number of their citizens have migrated to other countries. Their economy is totally devastated. They cannot re-build their country without the mercy, charity and exploitation of foreign powers. As the war drags on, they are getting to the point of no return from where they will not be able to recover from this destruction of population, territorial geopolitics, economy ...
Sure, those who hate the Russians can enjoy how much the war costs them and weakens them. But only racist Europeans have a vested interest in cheering Ukraine's leader to keep fighting an unwinnable war, while they cleverly stay out of it, because they don't care about Ukraine too - Slavs fighting Slavs is good politics for them.
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In WWII, it took the USSR 14 months to fight against Germany all through Ukraine, for about 1.4 million killed. The current Russian war against Ukraine is in its 56th month, losses are ~0.6 million killed and Russia holds about 19% of Ukraine, having gained 0.3% over the past year with ~140k killed.
The numbers speak for themselves on who's winning and who's losing the war.
> ... having gained 0.3% over the past year with ~140k killed.
Don't forget, against a NATO trained, NATO armed, NATO supported and NATO financed army.
Also, if one assumes that capturing territory is their only military goal, that does sound bad. It isn't though, right? With Ukraine, their major goal is to ensure that it remains a neutral state whose army and territory can't be used to economically or militarily threaten Russia ever. And their military goals have focused on this task - dismembering the country (which, as you pointed, they have done so by capturing around 20% of its territory, with maybe another 5% still to be occupied?), destroying their economic infrastructure (the captured territory had an impact on Ukraine's GDP loss, 75-80% of Ukraine's energy infrastructure has already been decimated, and their only port was targeted this year - if the war continues, Russia plans to capture Odessa too and convert Ukraine into a land-locked country), destroying Ukraine's military infrastructure (Russia has destroyed most of Ukraine's local missile and drone manufacturing units this year), and by destroying Ukraine's army through attritional warfare (nearly a quarter of Ukraine's army has been killed or injured - sure, way less than that of Russia, but unlike Russia Ukraine can't afford to lose its people).
(In other words, Russia is in no hurry to capture the remaining 4-5% of territory it seeks, because Ukraine will not stop fighting even after that is captured, and dragging the war helps Russia ensure that it can meet its other military goals too).
But ofcourse, why should Europeans care if Ukraine is being destroyed, as long as they kill as many Russians as possible?
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