Comment by thisislife2
4 days ago
> ... having gained 0.3% over the past year with ~140k killed.
Don't forget, against a NATO trained, NATO armed, NATO supported and NATO financed army.
Also, if one assumes that capturing territory is their only military goal, that does sound bad. It isn't though, right? With Ukraine, their major goal is to ensure that it remains a neutral state whose army and territory can't be used to economically or militarily threaten Russia ever. And their military goals have focused on this task - dismembering the country (which, as you pointed, they have done so by capturing around 20% of its territory, with maybe another 5% still to be occupied?), destroying their economic infrastructure (the captured territory had an impact on Ukraine's GDP loss, 75-80% of Ukraine's energy infrastructure has already been decimated, and their only port was targeted this year - if the war continues, Russia plans to capture Odessa too and convert Ukraine into a land-locked country), destroying Ukraine's military infrastructure (Russia has destroyed most of Ukraine's local missile and drone manufacturing units this year), and by destroying Ukraine's army through attritional warfare (nearly a quarter of Ukraine's army has been killed or injured - sure, way less than that of Russia, but unlike Russia Ukraine can't afford to lose its people).
(In other words, Russia is in no hurry to capture the remaining 4-5% of territory it seeks, because Ukraine will not stop fighting even after that is captured, and dragging the war helps Russia ensure that it can meet its other military goals too).
But ofcourse, why should Europeans care if Ukraine is being destroyed, as long as they kill as many Russians as possible?
> Russia is in no hurry to capture the remaining 4-5%.
The grapes are sour.
Russia is absolutely in a hurry because the war is hurting it tremendously, it simply is unable to do so at the moment, but it hopes it can undermine Ukraine's external support, which is indeed going much better than its campaign on the ukrainian front.
You are basing this on the assumption that the war will end if Russia captures this last 5% of territory. Why do you think so? Do you believe that Ukraine will suddenly stop fighting and agree to all of Russia's terms of surrender if Russia manages to occupy this last 5% territory? No (at least not with Zelensky). Do you think Russia will stop fighting? No, because Russia doesn't want a ceasefire (a stalemate). Remember, territorial occupation is just one of its military goals. If Ukraine is not willing to reduce the size of its military, through diplomatic treaties with Russia, then the Russians will strive to achieve this militarily. And for that it needs them to keep fighting. From my perspective, that's just a tragedy because there is no point in fighting a war you cannot win, and one that actually benefits your opponent as the war drags on.
The tendency among Russian apologists to belittle Ukraine at every opportunity and deny its independence is a defining trait, isn't it. The credit for keeping the Russian invaders at bay goes to Ukrainian drone manufacturers and drone crews, who are responsible for about 80% of all battlefield deaths. NATO countries have neither comparable expertise nor gear.
"Mostly" sounds modestly, if we take into account that Russia claims to have destroyed Ukrainian air force about three times over, yet Ukrainian MIGs keep flying. Likewise, the remaining drone manufacturers must be working overtime then, because the monthly Russian casualties in September were the highest of 2026, climbing from 32k in January to 46k in September. There are early reports that at least some Russian frontline units are no longer receiving reinforcements as they did before, because the people allocated for this year have been expended and there is no-one left to replace them. Earlier this year, Ukraine estimated that the breaking point would be somewhere around 50k casualties per month.
The only place where I see such narratives besides the dead comments on HN is Russian state TV. Elsewhere, even among the Russian domestic experts, taking these propaganda narratives seriously is a quick way to discredit oneself. Hitler said that he invaded Poland to break Anglo-French encirclement of Germany and secure the country against aggression, yet we don't take such nonsense seriously, do we?
It's always the same accounts too!
Let me know when you Europeans are ready to fight alongside the Ukrainians, so that they can actually win the war. Then we'll find out who is a "Russian apologists" or a "western troll" here ...
It is a fact that Russia is fighting a NATO trained, NATO armed, NATO supported and NATO financed Ukrainian army. (Otherwise, why is Zelensky worried that the US might cutoff intelligence access to it?). And it is a fact that western superpowers don't like this fact to be highlighted because it reminds the rest of the world (the Global South) of the callousness of the superpowers in using other countries for their own political games. While most Europeans might be ignorant about it, the rest of the world recognizes the simple fact that this is actually a proxy war between western superpowers and Russia (+ China), where neither side actually cares much about Ukraine and sees it as a pawn. And the blame for this lies squarely on the inept and corrupt leadership of Ukraine for not understanding this.
It is common knowledge that Ukraine moved most of their Air Force assets to other countries, to prevent its destruction. It was the right move, but also makes them less useful as it isn't immediately available when needed. And it is also factual that Russia has targeted and destroyed most of the local military infrastructure, including drone manufacturing units this year, so that Ukraine now depends on its manufacturing units abroad or foreign imports for its needs. Again, a smart move, which also has its drawbacks.
All these battle tactics, and some battle victories, doesn't change the basic maths of warfare though - even with the limited support from allies, Ukrainian military is outnumbered and outgunned by the more powerful Russian military and thus cannot defeat it alone. That is why they are losing - they have lost soldiers, territory, their citizens, their economic infrastructure and economy incapacitated to the point of no return.
It is also a fact that the cowardice of Europeans is apparent in that they can only offer Ukrainians keyboard warriors who cheer them to fight on with fake propaganda and platitudes, while putting down anyone else as "Russian apologists" for talking common sense. (Comparing Putin to Hitler is laughable. It's also a typical westerner attitude to politics to think in "black and white" - if you are not with me, you are against me and thus my enemy, your reasons be damned!).
The idea that Russia is fighting the entire collective might of NATO is a popular and a convenient excuse in Russia to explain its failures, but that's very far from the truth. The most powerful member of NATO, the United States, accounts for about 60-65% of the combined military spending of all NATO members, but its support for Ukraine since the end of 2024 barely registers on charts: https://www.kielinstitut.de/fileadmin/_processed_/1/5/csm_mi...
In other words, 2/3 of NATO (by expenditure) is not participating in supporting Ukraine. The ten largest supporters of Ukraine (by contributions as a share of national GDP) are in fact all countries that share a border with Russia and prefer to help Ukrainians kick Russians on an already established battlefield instead of waiting until their borders get violated too.
Cutoff from US sources is very painful, because the US has the best early warning system for detecting ballistic missile launches and loss of access leaves Ukrainian civilians without a chance to seek shelter before the missiles hit. Military value of such revenge attacks is near-zero. It is just pure terror against the civilian population like Hitler's V2 raids against London, and it's deeply shameful of the US to contribute to the terror by withholding information.
Trump's temper tantrums over his inability to force Ukraine to do what he wants clearly disprove the "proxy war" narrative, another popular Russian propaganda trope. As to the rest of the world, here's how the vote went on a UN resolution that condemned the Russian invasion of Ukraine as a violation of UN's charter and demanded a full and unconditional withdrawal of Russian forces: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Nations_General_Assembl...
Likewise, popular opinion of Russia has also sharply fallen. South America saw an especially sharp drop, scroll down to "Changes in Disapproval of Russia's Leadership Between 2021 and 2022" chart: https://news.gallup.com/poll/474596/russia-suffers-global-re... Researchers summarised: "Despite significant Russian efforts to spread disinformation about the conflict, the massive shift in attitudes toward Russian leadership demonstrates that the geopolitical significance of Putin’s invasion of Ukraine is not lost on most of the world’s population."
Interesting way to gloss over the fact that the Ukrainian Air Force never had the 674 airplanes and 284 helicopters that the Russian Ministry of Defence claims to have destroyed. Not even close. Do the fantasies about the destruction of Ukraine's drone manufacturing industry come from the same sources?
Almost all of that was true of Finland as well when Russians invaded in 1939, but the Winter War is considered a Finnish victory, because Finland retained its independence, government and armed forces, and Russians failed to conquer and absorb the country, despite enormous numerical and material superiority. The Finnish term for the outcome is torjuntavoitto, literally translated as "repelling victory".
Why? Putin brings him up quite often in his long pseudohistoric rants and has said that it was Poland's fault that Germany invaded. In the interview given to Tucker Carlson, he said that Hitler was effectively forced into the invasion after Poland refused to give in to Hitler's ultimatums. "Great" minds think alike, it seems.