Comment by psunavy03

Ironically, there have been studies done in using Monte Carlo methods to predict software delivery timelines (Dan Vacanti and Prateek Singh's work specifically), that found out that the more mature and well-behaved your pipelines and test automation were, the more accurate a naive Monte Carlo simulation was.

The only teams where Markov Chain methods or messing with sampling dates would provide more accurate timelines were the teams whose delivery processes were the most borked and spiky.