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Comment by jacquesm

21 hours ago

That is a very interesting example but it serves very much to illustrate my point: this is latent knowledge, we effectively already have it but we just haven't put 2 and 2 together. Unfortunately AI excels at such problems because it oversees a much larger slice of our knowledge than most individual humans. I've always said that cross domain application of knowledge is the easiest way to make progress and I haven't really seen anything conflicting with that to date.

So while you start off with 'disagreement' in fact it appears we agree far more than we disagree. Yes, it is important that this work is done. But you clearly illustrate that the envelope did not in fact expand. But all the time scientists around the world do in fact expand the envelope of our knowledge and one of my fears is that by undercutting a lot of such knowledge work by putting this digital combine to work on it that we will lose the infrastructure to do the rest. We'll see a lot of progress in a very short time and then we'll find out that because we took away that class of problems that it has become almost impossible to keep the infrastructure, incentive structure and educational paths in place to be able to do the next round.

You see a similar thing happening in software development. All of a sudden it has become a lot harder to start as a career. And lots of people are not even going to try this direction if there is no first rung on the ladder.

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jacquesm

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ssivark  19 hours ago

> Unfortunately AI excels at such problems because it oversees a much larger slice of our knowledge than most individual humans. I've always said that cross domain application of knowledge is the easiest way to make progress and I haven't really seen anything conflicting with that to date.

What is unfortunate about this? I suspect we concur in not buying into the AGI/ASI/RSI/<jargon of the day> hype, but this isn't this kind of breakthrough extremely valuable regardless?

Maybe it's not expanding the convex hull of what is possible, but the fact is that human progress is extremely jagged even within that convex hull -- for myriad reasons limitations related to funding, cross-domain expertise, number of scientists, etc.

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If you're worried about what it takes for a novice setting out in the field, it might be useful to see how specific "mature" subfields have evolved in their training structures. Eg. I have a background in theoretical physics and it is common for grad students to do courses for a couple of more years and take a few more years to reach the same productivity compared to grad students in (say) CS/AI.

red75prime  19 hours ago

At this point, it’s better to ponder a question: Are there fundamental reasons why a search trajectory during reinforcement learning can’t leave the envelope? And: what is the envelope, anyway? A metaphorical surface in a metaphorical space of ideas with no defined procedures to make it into an actual metric space?

  • ssivark  19 hours ago

    Reinforcement learning can definitely (in principle) leave this envelope, but it depends crucially on whether the feedback generates new information from reality, rather than just repackaging what humans have already discovered in the form of RL environments and densified rewards. So the question is not about RL per se, but what is the information source, what is the bandwidth of information it supplies, and then only finally the effectiveness of RL in distilling information that into models.