Comment by jimbob45
17 hours ago
If Anthropic or OpenAI fails, the other wins the US market, no? I’m oversimplifying but…that’s a pretty realistic possibility in the face of people thinking sinking one US AI company would hurt the greater US venture into AI.
> If Anthropic or OpenAI fails, the other wins the US market, no?
I am of the opinion that they both either succeed or they both fail. They are both losing money hand over fist and their model quality is pretty close to each other. There is not a whole lot that sets them apart.
I agree on the analysis, but not on the conclusion. What makes you think that the conditions you describe are stable grounds for a duopoly where both could be successful at the same time?
If one fails the bubble pops so you're right.
What if both fail?
If they did then Google would take over, and others would form from their competent engineers. Also, they don’t need to be profitable to succeed, they merely need to hype investors enough to ensure that their losses matter less than their growth projections.
I wonder if Google won’t end up the last man standing in the end in the west, after Anthropic that they have a major investment and partnership with, and OpenAI crumble under their large financial burdens; while Google has a far deeper actual cash pockets, more diversified, broader and deeper bench in all related matters on top of the massive name recognition and… even if a bit brittle… a “community” of users through Gmail, Google.com, Google workspaces, etc. not to mention the TPU space and their quantum breakthrough.
What if all of them fail because the capitalist model of centralization followed by rent-seeking gets foiled by an open alternative?
That is explicitly the Chinese strategy.
Now, what if the largest capitalist economy went all-in on an AI that might no longer be sufficiently monetizable?
3 replies →
No? Why would either of one of those have to win? Even if you limit yourself to US companies only, Google and Meta still exist.
The others, plural, meaning Gemini, Muse, and all the open weight models hosted by a competitive landscape of US providers. There is plenty of American players in the space outside of OpenAI and Anthropic if that’s the only thing you care about.
If Anthropic and OpenAI economics are as bad as they seem to be they deserve to fail, others will take over the remaining market. It’s not a team sport