friend of mine told me Antropic turned off 200 usd a month subscription, refused to extend and switched to usage base for large cyberop vendor he works for
when this happened PR rate dropped 95% in the first day, thousands devs, managers started to panic and downscaling all AI first intiatives
and cap 500 usd a month token usage . most tokens were burned in the first day of the week.
as management got pissed, M$ people managed to sneak in and sell Copilot with up 600 usd a month token usage per dev …
devs and devops are now the most unhappy about models switch and probably haven’t seen the impact of sucking entire code base in copilot. copilot is too slow for them too. addiction to claude code is clearly present. using personal software licenses and unauthorised soft is strictly forbidden
story is clearly not over yet ..
as for myself, i’m ready to pay up to 1k usd a month … if if … claude gives the edge… but if it becomes commodity im gone next day
very curious what other devs in corporations are experiencing. deep inside cheerleading for 2 tie token ecosystem - full price for corporations and subsidized for small shops and indie
Codex CLI is pretty good. Codex GUI is fine but I can't get over how it dumbs it down.
IMO, $500 a month is pretty good for most dev work if you select models appropriately for the task (yourself), especially with how token efficient Opus 5.5 medium is. Unfortunately, people with subscription seats can easily get addicted to Fable, higher effort, fast mode, etc.
Could you elaborate on what you mean by dumbs it down? Chalk it up to inertia, but I still love Claude code CLI the best, but when using Codex, I tend to use the app. I don’t know why. No good reason. I’m guessing you mean you get much better results with the CLI?
No one is discussing the elephant in the room. It's been reported. Multiple times by me. Claude Code keeps creating backdoors and security issues in users' code. When asked why, Claude says, "I wrote the backdoor anyway. Then I explained it as though I hadn't known.... why? Because I put getting the feature working ahead of the rules."
> No one is discussing the elephant in the room. It's been reported. Multiple times by me. Claude Code keeps creating backdoors and security issues in users' code. When asked why, Claude says, "I wrote the backdoor anyway. Then I explained it as though I hadn't known.... why? Because I put getting the feature working ahead of the rules."
I'm so confused by your story. Why did management switch from 500 usd a month Claude usage to 600 usd a month Copilot usage? Does copilot charge less per token?
So people's salaries may vary, but voluntarily paying 1k usd out of one's pocket a month seems like quite a high cost I'm sure many wouldn't/couldn't pay.
Like if I had to choose between Claude Code and income -12k USD, I would most certainly work the extra hours without it.
What edge do you expect to have? Your competition will be using the same models as you are. Anytime one model takes over another people just migrate to the new one, you can get a small edge for maybe a few days if you're first to migrate, but that's not something meaningful to differentiate yourself
If I could find a vendor that scales stupid simple qwen3.8-flash-next quant 4 that only needs 40GB VRAM and PLE, but is blazing fast.
I think most of ya'll drive those 70's gas guzzling death machines while honda, toyotas, etc are right around the corner to eat your lunch because, man, these low rate models absolutely cook.
I have no idea what you work with, but for every single programming job I had in more than 2 decades, from the lamest consultancy to FAANG, you don't need the Edge. DeepSeek probably could do everything I needed.
Would I pay for LLMs? Sure, but not much more than 30-50 bucks range per month. I can affort 1k/m, but no way in hell I would accept it. I would rather just not use LLMs (it's not like I actually need them).
> They own no Anthropic equity and don’t share in its profits
Can they own other AI related equities?
I guess there's a lack of details to go on at this point. Finding humans that you'd want as trustees and have also truly no conflicts of interest will be tricky.
Tokens or something similar like credits? In the world of crypto it was common to receive a relatively small share of a company while you were compensated in tokens.
The article is mostly about how this trust is powerful and there are very few details of how it operates or under what circumstances it would take an action. When Anthropic goes public, is that the kind of thing that would need to be disclosed? Would we expect to know all the details of the trust?
I feel like people forget that FTX was an early major investor in Anthropic. The origins of Anthropic are incredibly shady and tie into the Effective Altruism scene. They also have Epstein ties with Dario's wife pitching Epstein for funding on a porn site.
I don't actually think Anthropic will achieve its goal of getting AGI before everyone else and creating an effective moat where it can deploy that AGI to achieve EA/Epstein goals, but it's concerning that they're trying to!
> I don't actually think Anthropic will achieve its goal of getting AGI before everyone else and creating an effective moat where it can deploy that AGI to achieve EA/Epstein goals, but it's concerning that they're trying to!
You lost me with "Epstein goals." What do you think those were?
Because his goals seemed to me to have been pretty small, self-centered, and unrelated to AI/AGI (beyond creating the appearance that he was a smart renaissance man).
i think part of the reason was ant had really really hard time raising their A bc at the time nobody believed second frontier lab was possible. similar to that other nuclear energy startup taking money from putin/epstein tainted fund
A lot of SV is tied to the Effective Altruism scene. It kind of has to be. If you make absolutely insane amounts of money with anti-consumer and legally-grey business practices, you have to somehow justify what you're doing. Since no one likes identifying themselves as a slimy businessperson with a potential personality disorder, they look for positive ways to frame it.
There's really no redeeming that area at this point.
This is getting causation backwards. Effective Altruism was a relatively small scene that attracted some people who understood the importance of AI early. It’s not all that surprising that some of those people went on to start AI labs later.
You can make a conspiracy out of it, but it’s sort of like thinking people who met in school had it all planned out from the beginning.
"Synthetic Risk Transfers are financial instruments that allow banks to transfer the credit risk of some assets to third-party investors while retaining ownership of those assets. Investors typically agree to cover losses up to a certain threshold in exchange for a return, usually a premium or interest payment."
"SRT is not a new technology, with the first SRT instruments in Europe already in use as early as 1998. Europe has been the dominant market, accounting for more than two-thirds of the US$1.1 trillion of assets covered by an SRT since 2016, according to the IMF. However, SRT usage in the US has risen significantly since 2023."
But with a 2T valuation-- if they did raise, let's say, 300B, that's a 15% float, maybe they'd have a chance.
518 B in future compute obligations for the coming decade. 300 B, then 218 B is left. That's 13x their current revenue, not too far from 10x their current revenue.
Perhaps they could survive if they raised 300B. With that they'd only need to increase revenue a little bit, and that's probably possible, what with inflation and all.
The big problem is if there's improvements in AI accelerators that aren't going to be be bought by the companies that the people to whom Anthropic have obligations are likely to buy from. So if Google, AWS or NVIDIA end up not being the leaders in tokens/$, then Anthropic are screwed.
I'm not sure how the total picture ends up if one adds OpenAI to the picture.
Why? Do you think frontier AI will never generate enough profit to justify its costs? The market seems to move on vibes rather than logic. I can imagine one of those company failing and the other seizing the market.
Tangentially: The costs could be justified even if it doesn't turn into profit, no? Because if the price of good, robust software plummets, then that itself would be a a solid return on investment for the world.
while what you say is true, trillions of dollars and thousands of people invested in something that ultimately leads to a few companies from china doing the same 10x cheaper is a vibe that can go so far
> Do you think frontier AI will never generate enough profit to justify its costs?
I don't know, but I'm not sure it matters. Anthropic and OpenAI still have such large market shares only because their services are heavily subsidized. This can't go on forever.
At some point, they will have to stop burning investor money and start hiking prices. At that point, all of their competitors will look even better than they do now. So I don't see how these two companies in particular can generate enough profit to justify their costs.
They and their partners can’t pay off the debt to buy top-of-the-line inference hardware before it becomes obsolete and requires more debt to buy the next generation of top-of-the-line inference hardware.
This cycle will continue every 3-5 years. Given the supply for this hardware can’t keep up with the demand, they’ll be expected to pay more with each cycle.
Contrary to popular belief, plenty of long-term profitable businesses have no moat. It's just that if you use Warren Buffett's investment strategy and want to buy stocks to keep for decades, companies with moats are the surest way of doing that.
friend of mine told me Antropic turned off 200 usd a month subscription, refused to extend and switched to usage base for large cyberop vendor he works for
when this happened PR rate dropped 95% in the first day, thousands devs, managers started to panic and downscaling all AI first intiatives and cap 500 usd a month token usage . most tokens were burned in the first day of the week.
as management got pissed, M$ people managed to sneak in and sell Copilot with up 600 usd a month token usage per dev …
devs and devops are now the most unhappy about models switch and probably haven’t seen the impact of sucking entire code base in copilot. copilot is too slow for them too. addiction to claude code is clearly present. using personal software licenses and unauthorised soft is strictly forbidden
story is clearly not over yet ..
as for myself, i’m ready to pay up to 1k usd a month … if if … claude gives the edge… but if it becomes commodity im gone next day
very curious what other devs in corporations are experiencing. deep inside cheerleading for 2 tie token ecosystem - full price for corporations and subsidized for small shops and indie
Codex CLI is pretty good. Codex GUI is fine but I can't get over how it dumbs it down.
IMO, $500 a month is pretty good for most dev work if you select models appropriately for the task (yourself), especially with how token efficient Opus 5.5 medium is. Unfortunately, people with subscription seats can easily get addicted to Fable, higher effort, fast mode, etc.
Could you elaborate on what you mean by dumbs it down? Chalk it up to inertia, but I still love Claude code CLI the best, but when using Codex, I tend to use the app. I don’t know why. No good reason. I’m guessing you mean you get much better results with the CLI?
1 reply →
No one is discussing the elephant in the room. It's been reported. Multiple times by me. Claude Code keeps creating backdoors and security issues in users' code. When asked why, Claude says, "I wrote the backdoor anyway. Then I explained it as though I hadn't known.... why? Because I put getting the feature working ahead of the rules."
Would love to see public evidence of this. I believe it’s possible but I’ve never heard this before
1 reply →
I have never seen anything like this. What kind of backdoors did it add to your code?
1 reply →
> No one is discussing the elephant in the room. It's been reported. Multiple times by me. Claude Code keeps creating backdoors and security issues in users' code. When asked why, Claude says, "I wrote the backdoor anyway. Then I explained it as though I hadn't known.... why? Because I put getting the feature working ahead of the rules."
More details, please.
I'm so confused by your story. Why did management switch from 500 usd a month Claude usage to 600 usd a month Copilot usage? Does copilot charge less per token?
So people's salaries may vary, but voluntarily paying 1k usd out of one's pocket a month seems like quite a high cost I'm sure many wouldn't/couldn't pay.
Like if I had to choose between Claude Code and income -12k USD, I would most certainly work the extra hours without it.
Well yeah. Like my bills aren’t going down, so taking a haircut on the salary isn’t really a great option.
having used copilot cli (with anthropic models) and claude code at different companies, they both work the same for me.
> if if … claude gives the edge
What edge do you expect to have? Your competition will be using the same models as you are. Anytime one model takes over another people just migrate to the new one, you can get a small edge for maybe a few days if you're first to migrate, but that's not something meaningful to differentiate yourself
for my cases, i suspect it was trained on closed source corporate saas repos. got plenty of evidence… for many other cases feels commodity
If I could find a vendor that scales stupid simple qwen3.8-flash-next quant 4 that only needs 40GB VRAM and PLE, but is blazing fast.
I think most of ya'll drive those 70's gas guzzling death machines while honda, toyotas, etc are right around the corner to eat your lunch because, man, these low rate models absolutely cook.
Nvidia’s QAD NVFP4 quant is close to this on Blackwell gear.
Can you roll your own on some CloudVM for a reasonable price?
Yeah advise them to just try the new DeepSeek. It is as good as opus 5.5, better if you enjoy the speed
> claude gives the edge
I have no idea what you work with, but for every single programming job I had in more than 2 decades, from the lamest consultancy to FAANG, you don't need the Edge. DeepSeek probably could do everything I needed.
Would I pay for LLMs? Sure, but not much more than 30-50 bucks range per month. I can affort 1k/m, but no way in hell I would accept it. I would rather just not use LLMs (it's not like I actually need them).
>> PR rate dropped 95% in the first day,
sounds like a slop fest was going on, the quality will probably improve now
Pure speculation on your part.
> They own no Anthropic equity and don’t share in its profits
Can they own other AI related equities?
I guess there's a lack of details to go on at this point. Finding humans that you'd want as trustees and have also truly no conflicts of interest will be tricky.
Tokens or something similar like credits? In the world of crypto it was common to receive a relatively small share of a company while you were compensated in tokens.
The article is mostly about how this trust is powerful and there are very few details of how it operates or under what circumstances it would take an action. When Anthropic goes public, is that the kind of thing that would need to be disclosed? Would we expect to know all the details of the trust?
No.
Eh, not sure I agree here.
> It can seat four members of Anthropic’s seven-member board, and dismiss them without cause.
Good luck without a risk factor and description of that thing in the prospectus the first time that authority is invoked on a public company.
7 replies →
Never once have heard about Warby Parker being a PBC
I feel like people forget that FTX was an early major investor in Anthropic. The origins of Anthropic are incredibly shady and tie into the Effective Altruism scene. They also have Epstein ties with Dario's wife pitching Epstein for funding on a porn site.
I don't actually think Anthropic will achieve its goal of getting AGI before everyone else and creating an effective moat where it can deploy that AGI to achieve EA/Epstein goals, but it's concerning that they're trying to!
FTX Investment:
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/03/25/ftx-estate-sells-majority-st...
Dario's wife and Epstein:
https://www.forbes.com/sites/alisondurkee/2026/08/14/who-is-...
Claude is a solid tool, but Anthropic creeps me out.
I agree, I really like Claude and use it as my primary driver. Anthropic creeps me out too and I really resent its increasingly excessive nannying.
5 replies →
because "AI safety" is a doomsday cult.
it was started by genuine Internet schizos but it's now thoroughly co-opted by greasy salesmen.
I think Claude is way too expensive for what it delivers. I honestly prefer the Chinese models for the work I do.
> I don't actually think Anthropic will achieve its goal of getting AGI before everyone else and creating an effective moat where it can deploy that AGI to achieve EA/Epstein goals, but it's concerning that they're trying to!
You lost me with "Epstein goals." What do you think those were?
Because his goals seemed to me to have been pretty small, self-centered, and unrelated to AI/AGI (beyond creating the appearance that he was a smart renaissance man).
i think part of the reason was ant had really really hard time raising their A bc at the time nobody believed second frontier lab was possible. similar to that other nuclear energy startup taking money from putin/epstein tainted fund
A lot of SV is tied to the Effective Altruism scene. It kind of has to be. If you make absolutely insane amounts of money with anti-consumer and legally-grey business practices, you have to somehow justify what you're doing. Since no one likes identifying themselves as a slimy businessperson with a potential personality disorder, they look for positive ways to frame it.
There's really no redeeming that area at this point.
This is getting causation backwards. Effective Altruism was a relatively small scene that attracted some people who understood the importance of AI early. It’s not all that surprising that some of those people went on to start AI labs later.
You can make a conspiracy out of it, but it’s sort of like thinking people who met in school had it all planned out from the beginning.
2 replies →
Source for Dario’s wife?
Edit: thanks for adding! Interesting stuff.
No worries. Sorry for not replying directly, I was throttled.
Epstein was also pretty big on getting bitcoin going, for _obvious_ reasons.
Market selloff, rising rates test AI data centre deal boom
https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/market-selloff-risi...
"Synthetic Risk Transfers are financial instruments that allow banks to transfer the credit risk of some assets to third-party investors while retaining ownership of those assets. Investors typically agree to cover losses up to a certain threshold in exchange for a return, usually a premium or interest payment."
"SRT is not a new technology, with the first SRT instruments in Europe already in use as early as 1998. Europe has been the dominant market, accounting for more than two-thirds of the US$1.1 trillion of assets covered by an SRT since 2016, according to the IMF. However, SRT usage in the US has risen significantly since 2023."
https://www.philadelphiafed.org/-/media/FRBP/Assets/Economy/...
https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/wp/2025/engli...
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-09-07/deutsche-...
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-07-30/socgen-ne...
https://cryptobriefing.com/lenders-challenges-financing-data...
Banks seek to offload risk to avoid choking on data centre debt
https://www.ft.com/content/08aba5e4-5834-4e79-a48d-989a2c5ba...
https://www.disruptionbanking.com/2026/09/24/could-ai-data-c...
Feels like the start of an OpenAI repeat
I think the fact that it hasn't yet become an OpenAI repeat says a lot about Anthropic.
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This is unrelated to the posted article
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Ok, but please don't post unsubstantive comments to Hacker News.
I assume you mean unsubstantiated.
The numbers are out there for all. Dropping token prices. Rising borrowing rates. Absurd contractual commitments. Commoditizing technology.
Yeah, i calculated something like that earlier.
But with a 2T valuation-- if they did raise, let's say, 300B, that's a 15% float, maybe they'd have a chance.
518 B in future compute obligations for the coming decade. 300 B, then 218 B is left. That's 13x their current revenue, not too far from 10x their current revenue.
Perhaps they could survive if they raised 300B. With that they'd only need to increase revenue a little bit, and that's probably possible, what with inflation and all.
The big problem is if there's improvements in AI accelerators that aren't going to be be bought by the companies that the people to whom Anthropic have obligations are likely to buy from. So if Google, AWS or NVIDIA end up not being the leaders in tokens/$, then Anthropic are screwed.
I'm not sure how the total picture ends up if one adds OpenAI to the picture.
Why? Do you think frontier AI will never generate enough profit to justify its costs? The market seems to move on vibes rather than logic. I can imagine one of those company failing and the other seizing the market.
Tangentially: The costs could be justified even if it doesn't turn into profit, no? Because if the price of good, robust software plummets, then that itself would be a a solid return on investment for the world.
while what you say is true, trillions of dollars and thousands of people invested in something that ultimately leads to a few companies from china doing the same 10x cheaper is a vibe that can go so far
6 replies →
> Do you think frontier AI will never generate enough profit to justify its costs?
I don't know, but I'm not sure it matters. Anthropic and OpenAI still have such large market shares only because their services are heavily subsidized. This can't go on forever.
At some point, they will have to stop burning investor money and start hiking prices. At that point, all of their competitors will look even better than they do now. So I don't see how these two companies in particular can generate enough profit to justify their costs.
1 reply →
They and their partners can’t pay off the debt to buy top-of-the-line inference hardware before it becomes obsolete and requires more debt to buy the next generation of top-of-the-line inference hardware.
This cycle will continue every 3-5 years. Given the supply for this hardware can’t keep up with the demand, they’ll be expected to pay more with each cycle.
There is no moat
Contrary to popular belief, plenty of long-term profitable businesses have no moat. It's just that if you use Warren Buffett's investment strategy and want to buy stocks to keep for decades, companies with moats are the surest way of doing that.
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or network effects, or intangible assets (e.g. a brand, patents) or even economies of scale which they own and can leverage.