Comment by zer00eyz
19 hours ago
You're looking for comfort in the wrong place.
From microns S10: BITS shipped and net revenue.
Q1 '20 - $0.10 profit per gb shipped (ram and storage)
Q1 '23 - -$0.024 (cyclic ram market)
Q1 '25 - $0.131 this looks normal were on the upswing.
Q4 '26 - $1.136 Were all fucked.
If you look at a chart of S3 prices we have all been living in the "Happy Time" where the cost to run our ever growing software business has gone down. Githb says 2025 billion commits - 14 billion this year, and 2x the actions run. That means AI driven software growth is 2x to 14x.
But those ram/storage prices are going to hit the operational budget of EVERYONE soon.
Can your average sas survive a 4x price increase on its AWS/Azure bill? How about 10x (cause thats what the margins say the premium is on ram).
If the circular financing is a concern, the circular firing squad should be a bigger one. Your paying for tokens to build more software to pay more to run your software is not a sustainable cycle. People are starting to use the words CapEx again - and it's a good thing.
And it seems we're getting just 10x more software nobody uses.
We don't need 10x more software per se. It's removing the high cost and exclusivity from software production (but not just software production). It also enables the production of highly specialized software by non-specialists, so it broadens the field dramatically (things that were not being produced, will be). Simply put, every bit of software that can be useful, will definitely be made; and a whole lot of unnecessary software will be made in that process as well, that's chaos-discovery for you.