Comment by raincole
17 hours ago
That's exactly what people said when Deepseek V3 was released. Two years later the valuations roughly have quadrupled.
17 hours ago
That's exactly what people said when Deepseek V3 was released. Two years later the valuations roughly have quadrupled.
Valuations mean nothing to me, I'm not in the investor class that gets to buy and trade before IPOs, nor do I plan on putting a big share of my wealth in tech behemoths that everyone else is hyped by.
Rather than caring about whether it's over for western providers, I look at what competitors for the western providers have been doing since their first moment in the spotlight. And what I see is that their offerings keep getting better and better, and that at the same time they're opening not just their weights but their architecture and experience.
As a customer (rather than a pundit), I just like their tools and the user experience more than I do those of hte US giants. I admire the US offerings in many respects, but also find the user experience has a lot of friction and annoyances. Deepseek et al don't always deliver the same immediate 'wow factor' but when I sit down to build something, I enjoy using their tools. After 40 years of using computers for fun and profit, I will always always bet on a product that's fun to use.
"valuations" are irrational and make dot com _valuations_ look like a miniature caricatures
What dot com valuation would you compare Anthropic or OpenAI to?
The classic dotcom example is pets.com. Would you liken Anthropic to pets.com?
Except the revenues have moved in lock-step with valuations
no one has had to pay back any of the loans yet. the valuations right now mean precisely nothing.
if these hold a year after an IPO then we can talk.
"the market can stay irrational longer than you can remain solvent"
Whenever I see this, all I hear internally is "I'm not willing to put my money where my mouth is"
A better interpretation is that there is a window within which you can make money on an unconventional view. You can't be too close to the market's conventional wisdom, but you can't be too far away from it either.
My mouth is at: I don't want to be exposed to anything related to Musk.
My mind is at: Even though it's overvalued, it will likely keep climbing and won't crash.
Where is the market at?
1 reply →
Because we are still at the first stage of enshittification