Comment by rayboy1995
18 hours ago
All of it is really about scale, same reason as a single person you can't sell french fries as cheap as McDonalds.
18 hours ago
All of it is really about scale, same reason as a single person you can't sell french fries as cheap as McDonalds.
Couldnt they though? A medium fry at mcdonalds costs about $4 and you can buy 5lbs if potatoes for $4.
I think its more like 40 cents to make at home. So I think its quite unlike McDonalds.
A single person could make french fries for themselves cheaper than McDonalds, but once they have to start including the cost of the building and equipment, charging for their labor, and complying with health codes and worker safety requirements, they will quickly find that the fixed costs swamp the variable costs.
Here's an anecdote. I have repurposed my 6 year old 32gb M1 MacBook Pro to run Qwen 3.6 35b a3b and I used to give it nightly maintenance tasks that span my OSS github repos.
I gave it mundane tasks like updating dependencies, writing changelogs, etc. It ran about 2 hours a night.
My MBP consumes 0.1w idle and about 10w running inference. I pay $0.33/kwh. If it runs for 2 hours a day over 365 days - it will cost $2.41/year (excluding idle time).
Excluding the cost of hardware - the running costs alone are more expensive than DeepSeek's API and the inference quality is much lower. The economics are even worse on AMD AI Max mini PCs and worse still with a dedicated GPU setup.
That said - my Apple Silicon example is orders of magnitude cheaper than western inference providers and offers unrivaled privacy.
Perhaps a local AI setup would be compelling for small/medium business users... and it would be practical if the hyperscalers didn't buy all of the potatoes on Earth.
2 replies →
>but once they have to start including the cost of the building and equipment, ...
But they don’t have to include any of those costs.
Remember the comparison was running a model at home for yourself. The analogue is making fries at home for yourself. Thats cheaper.
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(numbers are just to illustrate a point, not accurate) Now assume you can't buy a 5lb bag of potatoes and you can only buy 10,000 lb bag. Now also assume that you can't buy this 10,000 lb bag unless you know someone else will pay for fries for the other 9,995 lb because you can't eat that many fries. That's the kind of scale the token inference market is efficient at.
How much does a fryer cost? How much does the fryer cost to run? How much would it cost to get the fries into the customers hand (i.e. food truck, rent)?
Not applicable because the hypothetical is making fries at home for yourself.
Its more economical to make fries at your home for yourself but that is not the case for inference.