Comment by overfeed
14 hours ago
Everyone knows the path followed by every single technology mankind has ever developed - including the incredible run that was Moore's law. Sure, some will think "This time is different" - but is it?
14 hours ago
Everyone knows the path followed by every single technology mankind has ever developed - including the incredible run that was Moore's law. Sure, some will think "This time is different" - but is it?
It doesn't need to run indefinitely. I don't think anyone sane thinks it's going to run indefinitely. It just needs to run long enough. Moore's law was what, 50 years? If AI keeps improving at the rate it currently is for 20 years, the world will be very different when that curve flattens out, in a way that makes most of our current concerns are entirely irrelevant.
Those cycles have shortened considerably. Just look at the lifespan of media, integrated circuits, software, products. There have been so many big model releases just in the last three months I've lost count. We're now closer to weeks between steps.
Maybe if China stops releasing capable models the pace will slow down a little, but they have lots of incentives not to.