Comment by sarchertech
7 hours ago
>P(C | private elementary) = 5P(C | affluent public schools) = 35 P(C)
That can’t be true. A group’s probability cannot exceed the overall probability by more than the reciprocal of its population share. A 35× ratio therefore requires the group to represent at most 2.86% of the relevant population. For comparison, NCES reported that 9.3% of students in grades 1–5 attended private schools in 2016.
For sake of conciseness I didn’t explicitly say elite non-religious private school.
Please check your rebuttals against AI before you post it.
The study you’re referencing didn’t examine elite schools just non-religious.
And if you’re only counting elite schools there are so many uncontrolled confounders that this is a patently stupid argument.
Elite schools are selective, a large part of what they are selecting for is kids who are likely to get into elite colleges to keep their success rates up.
Of course kids who are screened for being likely to get into an elite college are more likely to get into an elite college.
The only realistic way to control for this is to look at kids who got into elite schools but decided not to go.
>check with AI
Kick rocks. I’m not normalizing this shit. Why didn’t you check with AI. It would have told you that omitting key information to save a few keystrokes was a bad move.
You’re just saying that because you think you’re clever, making your little mathematical quip rather than looking into the actual data and argument.
People clearly have preconceived conclusions and they don’t have an interest in learning any facts.