Comment by drivebyhooting
8 hours ago
I don’t know why humans even bother talking to each other anymore. Go ask AI why your argument is wrong.
I already did it for you: the numbers I gave you are already conditioned on all that. You’re making the false assumption that moving from each tier is a low probability event. It is not. The retention from elite elementary to elite high school is very high. It’s not some hyper improbable funnel.
> the numbers I gave you
You didn’t give any numbers, just stated things very confidently without actually reviewing any of the relevant literature.
> the false assumption that moving from each tier is a low probability event
Doesn’t need to be a low probability events, multiply probabilities and the result becomes less likely every single time. And that’s of course ignoring the underlying reasons why the probability at each stage isn’t low in the first place. A smart kid at 6 is unlikely to turn into a dumb kid at 16 etc.