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Comment by mountainriver

7 hours ago

How is the hype cooling? Opus 5.5 is doing most of my job

I assume your still verifying that opus is correct?

In which case congratulations you’ve just been promoted to manager with no pay increase!

Joking aside Ai is doing a large chunk of my job but all it’s done is shifted what I actually spend time on.

It’s not really saved any man hours.

and the company serving it is losing 50B every half year lol

  • The staggering losses anthropic is facing are mostly due to their valuation increasing to just shy of 1T at the beginning of this year. That valuation increase caused the value of what they owe on future stock to triple which is shown as a massive loss on paper but doesn’t represent actual cash leaving their hands. The rules are being rewritten by frontier companies whose revenue growth and proposed spending are outpacing any thing we have seen in the past. Anthropic has committed to spending over 500B over the next 10 years on cloud infrastructure which might be what you are quoting but many project their revenue growth to outpace the 50B a year in spending so that may not even equate to any loss but will certainly be less than 50B/yr. The whole thing is bonkers but and it’s easy to get overwhelmed by the breathtaking numbers on their balance sheet.

  • If that company stopped training new models and just continued serving Opus 5.5 they'd be profitable. Being in an R&D race isn't cheap

    • If they would be profitable without further spending on R&D they would stop spending, but as you say they are in an R&D race so they can't stop and thus the hypothetical is irrelevant.

    • For how long? If OpenAI or Google (or Chinese companies) decide to keep losing money longer than them they'll pass them pretty soon.

      The AI race is going to be won by whoever has enough money to burn to outlast competitors and I'm increasingly skeptical that's going to be Anthropic

  • Paper loss. It's a sort of debt they have on bonds that is tied to their valuation. Because their valuation has grown significantly, so has their debt. It's standard accounting process to put that debt as a "loss", even though they're not paying anything.

    Think of it this way. It's as if a public company gives you a certain amount in RSUs that won't vest for a while. A year later, the company is worth 10x more. So they list the increased value of the RSUs they owe you as a loss.

    In reality, the fact that this "debt" has ballooned so much is a positive sign - the valuation is high (it's a separate issue whether that valuation is realistic).

    Their "real" losses are about $8B.