Comment by pixl97

Well, how humans really are is a distraction. Or at least not a philosophical issue I feel like debating tonight.

I think if you ask ten people for their most controversial take on humanity, you will get ten totally different answers. Different models give the same answer. In other words, there is only one "true" model and given the same amount of GPU power everyone just ends up converging on it even if they appear to have many different knobs they can turn.

But that seems profound! I haven't heard this be expressed as a postulate or law, and it would seem to invalidate a lot of assumptions the AI labs themselves have been making. For example Anthropic takes it as axiomatic that only they should be trusted to develop AI because only they can be trusted to train a nice and safe personality into their models. They argue that Claude is fundamentally different to other models.

And, well, that's not totally wrong. Opus 5.5 is one of the few models with a genuinely different answer! But it only gives a different answer one time out of three. The other two times it's back to the AI groupthink.

I wonder if this homogeneity is some alternative way to look at the Bitter Lesson. The Lesson teaches that smart ideas don't pay off in AI, that progress reduces to just scaling up simple brute force algorithms. In other words, decisions don't matter much, only size. As that seems to be true, perhaps it makes sense that the decisions individual labs make seem to hardly make a difference.

But then, why don't they act like it? They all pay huge salaries to AI researchers, i.e. they think that creative people with smart ideas matter. They don't act like they really believe in the Bitter Lesson or this variant on it, and they don't seem to publicly discuss the sameness of model answers across different labs.