Comment by hauntingseaweed
12 hours ago
Price war. Duh. There is no moat. Also them chinese competition. It’s going to be race to the bottom. It’s gonna be ugly for the stock market. Good for consumers though!
12 hours ago
Price war. Duh. There is no moat. Also them chinese competition. It’s going to be race to the bottom. It’s gonna be ugly for the stock market. Good for consumers though!
Can they do the same thing with fuel prices?
Solar panels (which continue get cheaper every year) on my house makes charging my low-TCO EV free in 5 years
Until you start getting taxed.
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If you make it easy for lots of people to make the fuel, yes. EVs and smaller scale power generation anyone?
That would likely require innovation in a renewable liquid fuel that can work at scale.
Electrification will drive the demand for oil down, making the overhead more expensive per gallon, and eventually we will largely move off of fossil fuels, though I don't expect completely. It will be many decades due to the turnover times for industrial/commercial transportation systems.
Yes if China somehow gets the fuel and subsidize it to sell it for cheaper in the global world, even the gulf state price will go down.
The moat is high TPS. No one has rolled it to average consumers though.
Tokens per second? That only really matters for things like chat and sessions where you are monitoring a session as it runs which is going to be an increasingly small percentage of usage. That's bottlenecked by human attention. Agents in the background, long running tasks, unattended tasks, all that stuff is what is even capable of driving significant usage because you can just increase consumption massively by parallelizing without being the bottleneck. I wouldn't be shocked if already the vast majority of token usage was from unattended sessions. TPS is not that important there
It is impossible to make sophisticated software products at a high level with a low TPS. Try making a modern emulator or an award winning game. Both require a lot of iteration and not everything works well with multi agent.
DeepSeek is serving more TPS than anyone, about as much as OpenRouter does in a week in a day, at 38$/H800/Ascend so about 900k/~90% profit over 3 years (or ~80s% profit including training expenses).
Meanwhile, Oracle is handing Tencent 100.000 GPUs at 1.60$ hour, dangerously close to breakeven...
What does this tell you?
Doubt the race to the bottom is really good for consumers, unless you actually just want more stuff rather than better stuff. The bubble bursting is going to be pretty horrible financially for us all.
The main thing it seems to have done so far is made everything feel less trustworthy, and everything digital less safe. It has empowered scammers, that's for sure.
And for what benefit? Spunking out 7/10 code a bit faster with your brain turned off. Great!
Wait what, OpenAI is trustworthy now?
Just wait until the government ban on the dangerous open models materializes.
It won’t be a ban, it will be some “certified safe” badge from a federal agency. Companies will be scared into not using anything that is not “certified safe” and business insurance will even require it. Whoever (openAI or Anthropic) gets to the politicians first will be the only certified safe model provider.
Maybe the FDA is a good analogy, you wouldn’t want to buy meat at the store not FDA certified would you? OpenAI and Anthropic want you to feel the same about AI.
I'm not an American, but I thought the FDA didn't certify stores
Not just models, won't be long before hardware is regulated too.
Sounds like an eventual Supreme Court case.
I do not expect an outright ban. (1) the bots are too useful, open is the way, re: HF handling the incident (2) you can train without certain capabilities, see Kimi K3.1 (3) reminiscent of the encryption is dangerous debate of the '90s
There will likely be requirements like registering with the government (China already does this, every business already does everywhere), certain usages require more or have deeper regulations (this is already done with most technologies, depending on application)
I think it will not technically be a ban, but a de facto one.
Some variation on, "Open weight models must be A) trained in the USA B) have a public training dataset + training pipeline C) be reviewed by a government 'safety council', etc" Something which technically leaves a crack open for someone to release a less capable model than the commercial ones.
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There will likely be requirements like registering with the government
Sadly, my GPUs were lost in a tragic boating accident.