Comment by ieeje
20 hours ago
Now ask yourself what it takes to generate 500bn…
You people are nuts. The failure risk is off the charts.
20 hours ago
Now ask yourself what it takes to generate 500bn…
You people are nuts. The failure risk is off the charts.
The OP post is misleading because it makes you think Anthropic has to earn 500bn per year in revenue, but those commitments listed are not yearly commitments, they're commitments over 10 years with contracts that run until 2036.
Anthropic needs to earn 52B a year in annual revenue to honor those specific commitments plus obviously its own operating expenses... and yeah that will require Anthropic to grow as a company, but their S-1 indicates 67.2B a year in revenue and sure maybe they stop growing and this is their peak... or maybe they do manage to grow further to 80B a year, 90B a year...
are those 67.2B revenue or profit? Because you know there are costs associated with running the business, so of those 67B if they only keep 30, they they're in the red, no?
Where do you think almost all of that $67B is going, if not to their infrastructure and inference costs?
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People are only nuts if they actually take money they don't have to invest in random companies.
But lets be clear: the growth of Anthropics revenue is very fast and way too many people stll don't even use AI
Completely agree, but I don't see how much _value_ these new users will get out of it..
Businesses are extracting value now - for the average user I see it as a convenience that they will pick the cheapest provider for..
It's a race to the bottom for most as there's not a major differentiator.
Yes its hard to predict for sure. Especially as the dust will only settle properly when Frontierlabs reach some kind of slowdown or ceilling, which I do not see right now.
I don't know a single person who hasn't used AI.
I know 2. That is out of the 3 people that I live with. Sure, this household is probably an outlier, but I think people inside the tech bubble do not realize the depth of the anti-AI sentiment from outside the bubble.
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Thats called a bubble.
Besides the question is not only if someone used AI but also for what and how much.
But look at this map: https://www.visualcapitalist.com/mapped-ai-adoption-by-count...
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Unless anthropic becomes an entertainment platform like netflix or something, I really can't see how they gain significantly more _paid_ users. The vast majority of people will use the free tiers of openai and claude.
Currently every business is building the Agentic Layer. A layer between the user and the product.
With tx to an LLM, this layer will close the gap to full or borderline full automatisation.
Your Ticketsystem will have agent support out of the box. Your incident system too. Your UI for SEO, SEO optimization, article creation etc. every single on of them wijll be there and consume tokens.
Future invesment from 10 people in your l1 support might be 5 + token budget. Your SEO optimizer collegues? 1 Person + token budget instead of a team.
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> But lets be clear: the growth of Anthropics revenue is very fast and way too many people stll don't even use AI
Anthropic is selling $3 for $1, of course the growth is fast.
My last information was, that the inference itself is cheap but its subbsidy comes from ignoring the training.
Really? The rumors are that their margins on tokens is quite healthy. That doesn't seem like loss-leading to me.