Comment by origini
1 day ago
People are only nuts if they actually take money they don't have to invest in random companies.
But lets be clear: the growth of Anthropics revenue is very fast and way too many people stll don't even use AI
1 day ago
People are only nuts if they actually take money they don't have to invest in random companies.
But lets be clear: the growth of Anthropics revenue is very fast and way too many people stll don't even use AI
Completely agree, but I don't see how much _value_ these new users will get out of it..
Businesses are extracting value now - for the average user I see it as a convenience that they will pick the cheapest provider for..
It's a race to the bottom for most as there's not a major differentiator.
Yes its hard to predict for sure. Especially as the dust will only settle properly when Frontierlabs reach some kind of slowdown or ceilling, which I do not see right now.
I don't know a single person who hasn't used AI.
I know 2. That is out of the 3 people that I live with. Sure, this household is probably an outlier, but I think people inside the tech bubble do not realize the depth of the anti-AI sentiment from outside the bubble.
They have never read a Google search summary or anything like that? Avoiding AI is different from not having used it at all.
1 reply →
People can be as anti-AI as they want, they'll still be totally dependent on it. It's not like anyone is pro-Meta, but billions are addicted to IG.
Thats called a bubble.
Besides the question is not only if someone used AI but also for what and how much.
But look at this map: https://www.visualcapitalist.com/mapped-ai-adoption-by-count...
Okay, so if we make the dubious assumption that revenue would increase proportionally in accordance with usage up to 100% of the population, that would still only account for a 6x increase in revenue-- not the 10x increase that they need to fulfill their contracts. Their product is increasingly replaceable, their revenue is super concentrated in just a few customers [0], and they're cracking down on distillation which was almost certainly a decent percentage of their revenue as well [1].
I'm not convinced.
[0] https://finance.yahoo.com/technology/ai/articles/two-custome...
[1] https://www.businessinsider.com/anthropic-ai-copycats-distil...
2 replies →
Unless anthropic becomes an entertainment platform like netflix or something, I really can't see how they gain significantly more _paid_ users. The vast majority of people will use the free tiers of openai and claude.
Currently every business is building the Agentic Layer. A layer between the user and the product.
With tx to an LLM, this layer will close the gap to full or borderline full automatisation.
Your Ticketsystem will have agent support out of the box. Your incident system too. Your UI for SEO, SEO optimization, article creation etc. every single on of them wijll be there and consume tokens.
Future invesment from 10 people in your l1 support might be 5 + token budget. Your SEO optimizer collegues? 1 Person + token budget instead of a team.
That seems like a really bad idea in many cases. Outside of maybe customer support and a few other things, I want to be working with deterministic software unless I explicitly decide otherwise
1 reply →
[dead]
> But lets be clear: the growth of Anthropics revenue is very fast and way too many people stll don't even use AI
Anthropic is selling $3 for $1, of course the growth is fast.
My last information was, that the inference itself is cheap but its subbsidy comes from ignoring the training.
Really? The rumors are that their margins on tokens is quite healthy. That doesn't seem like loss-leading to me.