Comment by dyslexit
17 hours ago
To be more specific:
- 161.2B w/ Broadcom: 2026-2031
- 120.5B w/ SpaceX: 2026-2029
- 114.5B w/ Google: 2026-2033
- 110.0B w/ Amazon: 2026-2036
- 44.9B w/ Microsoft: 2026-2033
- 44.6B w/ Nscale: 2026-2033
- 41.3B w/ Lambda: 2026-2034
which is around $63.7 billion / year if spread over 10 years, but with most of it due earlier than that.
Isn't the SpaceX contract cancelable with 90 day notice? How many of the others are too?
You're right, SpaceX will be cancelable within 90 days after March 2027.
SpaceX was the only one mentioned as cancelable. These are listed under "Infrastructure Service Arrangements" on page 170.
That is wild. What if there is a huge break-through in LLM models where they can reduce compute by 90%? All of those data centers would suddenly crater (many customers cancel) and go bankrupt. I feel it could go either way.
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The question is, how're those datacenters build outs coming along? two reasons for Anthropic to cancel those contracts. A) They don't need the capacity because they have capacity elsewhere, or b) they don't need the capacity because no one is using Claude. (I guess c) they don't need the capacity because theyre running Claude more efficiently is also technically possible.) For B to happen, they've got the demand in the form of contracts, and models don't really seem like they're shrinking, though there's a lot of non-public info, Astra > insize than sol, and Opus > insize than a Sonnet. So then we're looking at situation A), and the think to look at is SpaceX has the vertical integration to be able to plonk down datacenters and get them powered with literal jet/rocket engines/turbines that they make from scratch because they're a space rocket company when no on else can. So, personally, I don't think it's that big a risk to SpaceX's revenue. Or rather, is cancelable in 90 days, but smart money is going to see those cancelations coming from a lot longer away, if you're tracking datacenter construction. (Disclaimer, I picked up some SPCX; not financial advice, etc)
SpaceX does not make turbines that can run for tens of hours producing megawatts of power. A turbopump is a different beast.
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> "SpaceX has the vertical integration to be able to plonk down datacenters and get them powered with literal jet/rocket engines/turbines that they make from scratch"
Is that really a viable path? (Honest question)
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all Anthropic contracts are cancelable if the intent is to stick public shareholders with a bag
I'd imagine all of the vendors have an incentive to keep their main customer a float, while there might be penalties etc. for missed targets - it doesn't make sense for any of these vendors to ride the contract into chapter 11.
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This is always the intent for all recent IPOs I can remember.
On a side note, these are pretty hefty portions of the total revenue of these companies. 161B with Broadcom over 5 years is about 32B/year; that's fully half of their 2025 revenue. 120B with SpaceX over 3y is 40B a year, more than double their 2025 revenue and almost triple 2024. 114B with Google over 7 years is about 3% of their total revenue and about 1/4 of all Cloud revenue. 110B with Amazon is about 9% of their AWS revenue.
If Anthropic's revenue story doesn't materialize and the AI bubble bursts, these companies are in a world of hurt. It's probably not fatal for Google or Amazon but would be a major drag on the stock price (perhaps why Google has dropped from 400 to 315 over the last couple months as the AI story soured), and it could be company-ending for Broadcom or SpaceX if they end up building out infrastructure to service these commitments.
I remember before I left Google, one of the TGIF questions (which are now AI syntheses of many peoples' individual opinions) was "What happens if AI is a bubble and it bursts?" His response was "If that happens, the whole industry is in trouble." I see now what he meant.
SpaceX will just use the compute directly if they don't have buyers. They are already talking about the data center shortage as well because they can't get capacity elsewhere either. It's a weird problem to not be able to use your own data centers because you rented them out.
Between SpaceX, Starlink, Tesla, Neuralink, X, Grok, Grok Bot & Cursor there's not a demand shortage.
Grok Bot's the fastest growing product in the history of the company and the moment you use it, it's clear why. Took me about 1-2 days to realize I'd have a very hard time going back to not having it available.
[dead]
No the biggest problem will be investors will demand much higher dividends aka cash return..... how will alphabet continue to fund its projects with ever decreasing internal cash flows available after dividends? If the founders decide not to come good on this - the stock price will crash. If much of your employees compensation is stock based...? i have bad news for you
one can truly dream
wait what, how is Broadcom worth so much with so little revenue?
Their current stock price is pricing in these contracts, which have already been announced but have not been fulfilled (or booked as revenue) yet. So Broadcom's 2025 revenue was 63B; note that this is already up almost double from its 2023 revenue of 35B, largely on AI contracts. If Anthropic spends another $32B in 2026, that's in addition to their declared revenue; investors expect they'll be making $100B+ in 2026. Broadcom's operating margins are pretty good, so a lot of this flows through to the shareholders as earnings, and so investors are valuing it on the assumption that these contracts result in tangible cash flow.
If the AI companies go tits-up, that introduces counterparty risk, the revenue doesn't materialize as cash, and suddenly their earnings take a nose-dive. If they've staffed up significantly to design and sell these AI accelerators and suddenly there's no market, they could be in a lot of hurt.
AI aura.
BRCM and Marvell are both the actual designers of many of the “we designed our own ai chip” chips that so many companies have been announcing.
Broadcom is also a major supplier of the networking chips that the hyperscalers use. Clusters are moving away from infiniband and nobody is particularly impressed by Spectrum.
I'm sure there are others here that are experts on this topic, but my 2 cents on this is that Broadcom specialise in custom / specialised AI chips, and their collaboration with Google to manufacture the TPUs is a pretty solid revenue moat over the next several years.
AI focused investments and patent trolling.
Forward P/E.
from what you've written it's more like:
- 2026: $97.08B
- 2027: $97.08B
- 2028: $97.08B
- 2029: $97.08B
- 2030: $66.96B
- 2031: $66.96B
- 2032: $40.09B
- 2033: $40.09B
- 2034: $14.59B
- 2035: $10.00B
- 2036: $10.00B
Total: $637.0B
Considering everything that is cancellable, ie. hard commitment only, it's:
- 2026: $56.79B
- 2027: $56.79B
- 2028: $56.79B
- 2029: $56.79B
- 2030: $56.79B
- 2031: $56.79B
- 2032: $29.93B
- 2033: $29.93B
- 2034: $10.00B
- 2035: $10.00B
- 2036: $10.00B
Total: $431B
If they go bankrupt, there are some more cancellations available, also from the other side – if some providers don't deliver, it can be lower as well.
That's helpful, but 2026 isn't cancelable, nor is at least half of 2027. Also, I think some of these numbers are off. Only SpaceX is cancelable but the above shows declines for years outside of the SpaceX commitment (assuming it does get cancelled, and in full).
I also left out AMD at $20B for 2027, so that would need to jump up.
Finally, the above is only counting the commitments they've already made. It's not very likely they'll only spend $10B in 2035.
It goes down because contracts expire.
AMD is missing, true but commitment schedule isn't known. Also missing estimated additional TPU purchase for 28-31, ~$125B-$150B.
- 2026: $97.08B = Broadcom $26.87B + SpaceX $30.13B + Google $14.31B + Amazon $10B + Microsoft $5.61B + Nscale $5.58B + Lambda $4.59B
- 2027: $97.08B + AMD (TBD) = Broadcom $26.87B + SpaceX $30.13B + Google $14.31B + Amazon $10B + Microsoft $5.61B + Nscale $5.58B + Lambda $4.59B + AMD (TBD)
- 2028: $128.33–134.58B + AMD (TBD) = Broadcom $26.87B + SpaceX $30.13B + Google $14.31B + Amazon $10B + Microsoft $5.61B + Nscale $5.58B + Lambda $4.59B + additional TPUs $31.25–37.50B + AMD (TBD)
- 2029: $128.33–134.58B + AMD (TBD) = Broadcom $26.87B + SpaceX $30.13B + Google $14.31B + Amazon $10B + Microsoft $5.61B + Nscale $5.58B + Lambda $4.59B + additional TPUs $31.25–37.50B + AMD (TBD)
- 2030: $98.21–104.46B + AMD (TBD) = Broadcom $26.87B + Google $14.31B + Amazon $10B + Microsoft $5.61B + Nscale $5.58B + Lambda $4.59B + additional TPUs $31.25–37.50B + AMD (TBD)
- 2031: $98.21–104.46B + AMD (TBD) = Broadcom $26.87B + Google $14.31B + Amazon $10B + Microsoft $5.61B + Nscale $5.58B + Lambda $4.59B + additional TPUs $31.25–37.50B + AMD (TBD)
- 2032: $40.09B = Google $14.31B + Amazon $10B + Microsoft $5.61B + Nscale $5.58B + Lambda $4.59B
- 2033: $40.09B = Google $14.31B + Amazon $10B + Microsoft $5.61B + Nscale $5.58B + Lambda $4.59B
- 2034: $14.59B = Amazon $10B + Lambda $4.59B
- 2035: $10.00B = Amazon $10B
- 2036: $10.00B = Amazon $10B
Combined total: $782–807B+, including estimated additional TPU purchases and conditional AMD spending.
If we assume none of it is front-loaded (which seems, uhhhh unlikely) we're looking at ~$100 billion a year for the first 4 years of commitment. That's significant.
https://tinylittleoffice.com/write/#/v1/write/yZVWxTsMwEN39F...
Got the numbers on a spreadsheet. Of course this is a super simplistic version assuming equal yearly commitments.
It’s been rumored but this is a pretty huge TPU dependency. Assuming Broadcom + Google is TPU spend.
There is the FT covers it…
> Its largest commitment is with Broadcom, which co-develops the TPU AI processors with Google and leases them to Anthropic in deals worth $161bn over five years. From 2028, Anthropic expects to spend up to $150bn more on TPUs.
https://www.ft.com/content/a6c43402-719e-4295-ae5f-541edb0ae...