Comment by cucumber3732842
2 hours ago
Approx one (with a big error bar) fire per 100 vehicles per year sounds about right based on my unscientific dealings with auction oil field trucks.
My gut feel is that vehicles of all types seem way more disposed to fire than stuff from the 90s through 2010s.
This vehicle was part of a manufacturer-owned highway fleet. That means it received proactive maintenance by trained personnel on a regular schedule, with full access to engineers for diagnosis and OEM replacement parts, and ran on good roads in the mild California climate. It's practically pampered compared to oilfield haulers, especially the ones that live long enough to be auctioned off. They're not comparable.
As an aside, some of the vehicles I've worked on serve in oilfields and I'd be horrified to discover 1% of them were catching fire annually.
For some other unscientific findings, that'd suggest 5 vehicle fires per year just from residents of my apartment complex. I've seen 1 in 8 years, and that was arson.
Those trucks are probably doing over 200,000 miles per year and your apartment's cars under 20, so the fires/mile ratio seems comparable.
The fires/mile ratio seems like a good idea (skewed a bit by relative driving habits of professional vs typical drivers). It turns out those numbers are all pretty readily available. All miles from all sources (including semis) tally to 3.3T/yr. All car fires from all sources (including crashes, so in the context of semis spontaneously combusting these numbers will make the 1/100 rate look even better than it should be, though separate sources indicate that most car fires aren't from collisions, so that's perhaps a small effect) total to 210k/yr. You then find that, smoothing out all underlying subgroups and data, there's a fire every 15.5M miles.
Applied to residential apartments, there's an average miles per year of 14k or so (should be less here than average based on anecdata, high fuel prices discouraging driving, and everything being close even if you do drive and usually close enough to be walkable, but let's assume 14k/yr is a reasonable baseline), giving us a fire every 1100 vehicles, not every 100.
1/1k is more plausible to me (still "feels" high, but it doesn't trigger the baseline absurdity checks I have in the back of my mind). 1/100 suggests that every year in uni one of my classmates should've had their car burn down. 1/100 suggests that every year my hometown newspaper should report 30 cars burning down -- one every week or two (and given that the newspaper covers the entire county it should actually be 3/week). It's a pretty high rate. The typical person knows hundreds of people well enough that a car fire would often crop up in conversation eventually, and I don't think the typical person knows anyone whose car caught fire. Elaborating on that, I don't think the typical person doesn't know somebody whose car caught fire _ever_, much less in the last year.
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