Comment by ericmay
10 hours ago
> I am excited that China is pushing out combustion vehicles globally.
Well China isn't the only country that builds electric vehicles, but even so internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles will be around for a long time. Actually that's in part because of China. We'd have seen greater adoption by now but because in part of Chinese hoarding of rare earth mineral processing American, European, Japanese, and Korean automakers have had to maintain ICE fleets. Of course, as you noted, there are scaling issues, they don't want to spend the money to develop EVs when the markets aren't really settled, &c. but there are quite a few factors at play. If you care about emissions/oil/energy usage you should actually be in favor of no cars to hold a more consistent position.
> Every unit they move assists in this, as well as reducing oil demand.
The good thing is that China helps US/EU/J/K/&c. here because reducing oil demand in other countries means there is more available for us to keep using.
> I don't care what happens the US or Europe legacy auto
Sure but US and Europe do and because they do they say sorry China can't sell your cars here and then China can't sell its cars there. They lose out on lots of $$ but as you said that's fine so it works for everyone.
> Subsidies, no subsidies, that's a silly argument.
China doesn't have infinite money so it's not a silly argument.
> The Western world is sad China plays by different spreadsheet rules, it is what it is.
What do we have to be sad about? We just say sorry can't sell your cars here and then we just keep living our awesome lives.
> China doesn't need profits, they need to keep their economy producing, even if at breakeven, or a potential loss.
You need profits though, that's an inescapable fact of reality. Otherwise you just go out of business.
> China will continue to scale up EV sales, and combustion vehicles will continue to decline. That's my point. Peak combustion vehicles sales was 2017, it's all down hill from here.
Well vehicle sales will decline even in China across all vehicles, not just ICE or EV. Continuing to scale up EV sales when sales will decline and your TAM isn't as big as you think means you're spending a lot of money building factories that won't get used. Resources and money are limited (this isn't a debatable fact) so at some point you just can't do it anymore, the companies go bust, and then at least in the west we never really cared because we're doing our own thing with our own cars.
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