Comment by carefree-bob
7 hours ago
> The big story is that fossil fuels are relatively stable or in decline and solar is exploding.
This is true only in the sense that fossil fuels, as a percentage of total energy consumption, are stable or in slight decline. That is because total energy consumption is rapidly increasing, specifically as new forms of energy are added to the mix.
Fossil fuels in absolute terms are, however, increasing.
China is burning more coal today than ever before. Coal use is going up. Coal use as a percentage of total energy is going down.
China is burning more oil and natgas than ever before. It is increasing. But as a percentage of total energy, it is decreasing.
This also matches China's CO2 targets. China's plan is not to decrease CO2 emissions, those emissions will keep increasing. The targets are to decrease the emissions required to generate a dollar of GDP. By 2060, they want the ratio of emissions to GDP to be 60% lower than it was in 2020. If you look at historical trendlines, that is an easy target to meet, just with improvements in technology and energy efficiency, particularly when you are starting from such a high base. But people look at that goal and think that China wants to cut emissions by 60%. GDP in 2060 will be 10x what the GDP was in 2020, so a 60% cut in that ratio is still a 400% increase in total emissions. Everything is measured in terms of ratios, not absolute numbers. Ratios where the base is always rapidly growing.
This confuses a lot of people who see that the ratio of fossil fuel in the entire energy mix is decreasing, and think this means that actual fossil fuel use is decreasing. The charts, report, graphs that people cite, if you look carefully, are always ratios. Ratios with the denominator growing as the denominator is something tied to GDP, whether total output or total energy output.
It's more accurate to say that there are limits to how much additional fossil fuel capacity China can bring online, as these are mature industries, whereas nuclear, solar, etc, are young industries and there is a lot of capacity to bring online since you are starting from a low base. China's approach to energy is always "we want more of it, of any kind." The only reason that China's oil production is not increasing by 10% per year is because it's not possible for China to increase oil production that quickly. Same for coal. China is increasing all forms of energy as fast as possible.
> China is burning more coal today than ever before. Coal use is going up.
In terms of electricity production, that does not seem to be the case
https://ember-energy.org/data/electricity-data-explorer/?ent...
It's possible that China's metallurgical coal burning increased so much that it offsets power generation decline, but I wouldn't expect so.
> China is increasing all forms of energy as fast as possible.
This does not match the observed reality.
> This does not match the observed reality.
Observed by whom? For example this shows no change in overall trend.
https://www.iea.org/countries/china/emissions
Two problems. First, you were talking about China growing all forms of energy, but this chart isn't somehow depicting that, instead it's about CO2 emissions, but more importantly Second that's a chart ending in 2024. The chart I linked shows a dip for Coal in 2025 and further reducing year-on-year through to September 2026.
Your link shows a wavy curve of coal use that has an upward trend. I think your graph does prove my point.
Here is longer term data also: https://www.worldometers.info/coal/china-coal/#history
China is using more coal than ever before. But it's not monotone up, there is such a thing as a business cycle as well as global commodity price swings that add noise. Certainly when there is a contraction in manufacturing or high coal prices, firms will substitute away to other goods, or similarly when we have the oil shortages now, you can bet that coal use is increasing to compensate.
But despite all that there is a marked upward trend.
> This does not match the observed reality.
It matches the observed reality, yes. China spent half a billion Yuan to increase oil production, which it did. China increased coal production. China increased nuclear production. China increased wind and solar.
Name one form of energy that China is not increasing?
>Name one form of energy that China is not increasing?
Literally coal considering latest data, i.e. not historic data that caps at 2024. 2025 potential tipping point, total coal generation TWh down in absolute terms, during record export year. 2026 on trend for another ~1% YoY decline. Peaking coal for energy generation part of 2026-2030 15th 5Y plan, we're in the _planned_ plateau phase, and decline after. Of course planned / projected, but we're edging to 2 consecutive years of declining absolute coal generation. Full trend is line goes up suddenly stops. Now to be completely fair, there was 2 years of coal decline 10 years ago when PRC was fighting war on pollution and stalled a bunch of factories and shuttered coal plants i.e. total electric generation stalled. Current structure shift from construction (less steel / less concrete), but total electric generation also growing.
That's just for power generation, you're right coal use set to increase for petchem, i.e. replace oil for industrial inputs since coal feedstock cheaper than oil at current prices. But in terms of energy, coal is not increasing despite new coal infra is increasing to more efficiently use coal for peaking instead of baseload. You're also right PRC doesn't "hate" coal, I mean it would probably love to have ample cheap oil/ng, but unlimited coal is good consolation / contingency at least until renewable share becomes dominant. PRC loves domestic coal for energy security, but not enough to burn it forever especially when the economics don't make sense, but enough to have insurance infra to burn in ample amounts just in case.