Comment by Gareth321
1 day ago
Setting your experience aside, my national transport agency in Denmark recently approved Tesla full self driving because the data confirmed that it’s safer than the average driver. I think it’s both true that these cars can fault, and that they’re safer on average than humans. To be clear, Denmark is not alone. Many European countries have approved it for the same reason, and many more are evaluating. Holland is the toughest to pass, and they passed.
Self-driving cars have fat-tailed risk.
Some outside factor might cause a signal failure, causing cascading destruction.
I assume you meant full self driving supervised, not actual full self driving.
No points for the nomenclature. Tesla calls it “Full Self Driving,” but it is supervised.
I wonder what they are going to call it if they ever develop the real thing.
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"Safer than the average driver" is great if all the below-average drivers start buying Teslas. But if you're converting drivers on the other end of the spectrum then the roads become less safe overall.
I wish someone who had access to the data would address this.
I do know that there is not much better than average driver! There is much worse than average: people who drive drunk, and a few other classes of people who shouldn't drive at all. However the vast majority are all about equal: in reasonable mental health and limited to the same eye and reaction times. A few people have and follow better training and so are slightly safer - but this is slight. Most people think they are better than average because they excuse their mistakes as a "one time mistake", while confusing "the other guy's" mistakes with the other guy must be a bad driver.
Denmark compared FSD data to national incident rates for regular passenger vehicles. So it’s a true average across all passenger vehicles.
Why would you assume that the group of people would be anything other than the average driver?
That's if you ignore the ability to look everywhere all at once which even the best human driver has trouble doing.
It will be interesting to see if the substantial safety margin decreases as more people buy in.