Comment by paxy
1 day ago
The problem is that transition would require a ~95% drop in stock price, and the company isn't going to survive that.
GM - $74.5B market cap (6.2M cars sold annually)
Ford - $50.2B (4.6M)
Volkswagen - $40B (9M)
BYD - $100B (4.6M)
Toyota - $256B (11.3M)
Hyundai - $57B (7.3M)
Tesla - $1.4T (1.6M)
The numbers simply don't add up.
A stock drop does not in and of itself kill a company which has positive cashflow, although it may give the executives heart attacks and leave it vulnerable to takeover.
If the company keeps the startup structure of paying employees in stock options and growing by VC money into the several billions value, yes a stock drop can kill it in and of itself.
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1. compare debt, tesla is cash rich while old OEMs are saddled with debt
2. compare growth opportunities, ie https://www.tesla.com/robotaxi - rollout is going well, and every cybercab produced nets what ? $25k/year? $75k/year? vs $5-8k once per car sold?
I don't like Musk, but this is the correct answer. So many people are trying to fit Tesla into the old OEM box but they are not a car company. They are a technology company that sells cars.
I don't know if robotaxi will take off, but if it does, it massively undercuts Waymo because the vehicles are just so much cheaper to make and are made in house.
Just like WeWork is not a real estate company, but a technology company that does real estate. They had nearly $0.5m net income in 2016, but presumably the future is bright.
Telsa/Musk is a cult of personality. SpaceX's valuation makes no sense either.
On that basis if Musk overdoses on ketamine or something then 95% devaluation may well happen.