Comment by int32_64
1 day ago
Looking at the S-1 lockup schedule the IPO seems doomed. They need to bring in a ton of investment, and you will have massive unlocks right as the next congress is most active authoring anti-AI bills. Who's going to buy this?
Anthropic have been calling for regulation, that in itself seems like a high risk for buyers.
Corporate calls for regulation usually translate to "regulatory capture to ensure the moat", in my books.
Exactly, regulation isn't a risk, that's their attempt to avoid their product becoming commoditised.
The risk for investors is they don't succeed in getting regulatory capture because without that they don't have a long term business model
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In Anthropic's case it is pretty openly that. Dario has been very public about existential dangers from Chinese models.
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And if there was any doubt, look at the difference in their stock price for the prior year when they were "calling for regulation" vs now that there's an actual chance they get regulation by someone they don't control.
Anthropic wants open weights models banned, and wants data centers. They're probably going to get the opposite.
The problem is SCOTUS has already ruled software is protected under the First Amendment, and the landmark cases that establish this precedent applies perfectly to model files.
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Especially since it seems to be a call for Trump, specifically, to control the models.
What is the lockup schedule?
They have like 26 different dates IIRC
...nearly same range as SpaceX/XSI? :-D
Sigh...people said the same about SpaceX, too. And it has held above $130, its IPO price, for almost 6 months now. Same for Uber. These companies keep defying predictions of crashing or dying.
The market anticipates the unlocking; when the shares become public, buyers swoop in, so the stock decline is much less than expected, if at all. There is no new information here. If everyone is expecting shares to unlock, then it’s priced into the market accordingly.
1) SpaceX is trading below its IPO price. If you bought shares at the IPO you’d have lost money, unless you sold on the pop.
2) Valuation aside, SpaceX has a massive moat. It’s crazy hard to do what they’re doing. Anthropic increasingly has zero moat, with the market rapidly coalescing around commodity open models.
1) SpaceX is trading below its IPO price. If you bought shares at the IPO you’d have lost money, unless you sold on the pop.
"SpaceX (ticker: SPCX) was priced at $135 per share during its initial public offering on the Nasdaq on June 12, 2026."
current price is $134 , give or take a dollar.
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It remains to be seen whether SpaceX just drained their own moat when they canceled Falcon 9.
They’ve now got all their eggs in a new basket. A basket that isn’t entirely in working order yet, and whose market viability is still uncertain because it remains to be seen whether a market that’s used to panniers really wants a laundry hamper.
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Not the same as Uber all. Lots of employees got fucked because at lockup expiration it was much lower than the ipo price (at which they were taxed at).
It seems like SpaceX is not as deeply tied to unprecedented debt-financed infrastructure buildouts at the same moment that interest rates are pushing up and up and up though.
That's the primary angle of depreciation of Anthropic's outlook, is that as interest rates are running hot, they need to grow ever faster to justify the $2B target, at the same moment that they're growing slower.
> Who's going to buy this?
So many people who don't actually read and evaluate things but just buy stocks based on vibes and what they see on Twitter. Which is to say, the same people that buy and lose money on most IPOs.