Comment by paulpauper
1 day ago
Sigh...people said the same about SpaceX, too. And it has held above $130, its IPO price, for almost 6 months now. Same for Uber. These companies keep defying predictions of crashing or dying.
The market anticipates the unlocking; when the shares become public, buyers swoop in, so the stock decline is much less than expected, if at all. There is no new information here. If everyone is expecting shares to unlock, then it’s priced into the market accordingly.
1) SpaceX is trading below its IPO price. If you bought shares at the IPO you’d have lost money, unless you sold on the pop.
2) Valuation aside, SpaceX has a massive moat. It’s crazy hard to do what they’re doing. Anthropic increasingly has zero moat, with the market rapidly coalescing around commodity open models.
1) SpaceX is trading below its IPO price. If you bought shares at the IPO you’d have lost money, unless you sold on the pop.
"SpaceX (ticker: SPCX) was priced at $135 per share during its initial public offering on the Nasdaq on June 12, 2026."
current price is $134 , give or take a dollar.
The debut price for retail investors was $150[1].
1: https://www.forbes.com/sites/tylerroush/2026/06/12/spacex-op...
It remains to be seen whether SpaceX just drained their own moat when they canceled Falcon 9.
They’ve now got all their eggs in a new basket. A basket that isn’t entirely in working order yet, and whose market viability is still uncertain because it remains to be seen whether a market that’s used to panniers really wants a laundry hamper.
And is there some law of nature that prevents SpaceX from un-cancelling Falcon 9?
um, they've got 2 years before the basket is retired during which time they can always extend if they need to. why would they want to keep a less capable, more $/lb into orbit system going after Starship becomes a viable, reliable upgrade???
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Not the same as Uber all. Lots of employees got fucked because at lockup expiration it was much lower than the ipo price (at which they were taxed at).
It seems like SpaceX is not as deeply tied to unprecedented debt-financed infrastructure buildouts at the same moment that interest rates are pushing up and up and up though.
That's the primary angle of depreciation of Anthropic's outlook, is that as interest rates are running hot, they need to grow ever faster to justify the $2B target, at the same moment that they're growing slower.